Creative Leisure News - "Vinny da Vendor"

Challenges, problems, and triumphs -- from a manufacturer's perspective.

Do Trade Shows Reflect the State of the Industry?

If we're like other industries, trade shows may be in trouble.

by "Vinny"/Mike Hartnett (April 18, 2005)

(Note: In our previous issue, we said trade shows often reflect the state of the industries they serve. That prompted this reply from a mid-size manufacturer.)

Here is a question to pose to your readers. Consider: A. Big retail chains in the toy business = much smaller (dead?) Toy Fair. B. Big retail chains in the office supply business = much smaller (dead?) SHOPA show. C. Big retail chains in the floral supply business = dead WFFSA show. D. Big retail chains in the home and lumber supply business = much smaller (dead?) Hardware/Housewares shows.

Meanwhile, big retail chains in the crafts business = slight growth in winter CHA show and reviving summer CHA (former ACCI) show. Why? What makes us different? Will it continue or will we be able to hold the CHA shows in much smaller venues in five years?

Here are a few more show related questions:

1. Will the summer show survive if it is under CHA and a "carbon copy" of the winter show?

2. Should the summer show now travel around the country as an attraction for new and small retailers?

3. What happens to the stock of the public chains when scrapbooking/paper and yarn plateau and begin to fall? And how does that affect the industry?

And a non-show question: If $5,000,000 is the "Michaels perfect store," does that mean that A.C. Moore is already "perfect"?

Mike Hartnett comments.

1. "Vinny" is implying that we may see a big decline in trade shows if a handful of chains completely control the market. If you think of a trade show as advertising, then consider how David Ogilvie, the father of modern advertising, defined it: "Advertising is what you do when you can't go see somebody."

If "Vinny" only has five customers, he doesn't need a trade show; he'll just go see them. Of course, if "Vinny" only has five customers, he probably doesn't sleep well at night, knowing he may eventually go out of business.

2. In one sense trade shows do not reflect the industry, or at least the industry's stores. Think of what you see when you walk through a Michaels or a large independent. Now think about the last trade show you attended. Where were the floral exhibitors? The framing vendors?

3. As to what happens when/if scrapbooking and yarn decline, savvy craft retailers will be fine. That's the great advantage of offering a variety of departments. The urge to create is constant; what changes is the products currently in vogue. Since I joined the industry in 1979, flowermaking, latch hook, dollmaking, decorative painting, and stenciling have all had their days in the sun. Jewelrymaking has had about four days in the sun. Mop dolls, milk caps, and friendship pins had about 20 minutes in the sun. And the super-trends � macrame, cross stitch, and wearable art/fabric painting � were the scrapbooking of their day.

The stores offering a variety of categories survive, because they have other products to keep them going when the hot category cools.

4. If you looked at an industry sales chart over the last quarter century, you'd see a series of sharp increases (a trend or one of the three super-trends attracting new consumers) followed more or less by a plateau. Because when a super-trend cools, it's not followed immediately by another super-trend.

If history is any guide, then if/when scrapbooking and yarn cool and before consumers make something else a hot category, the chains will try all sorts of things to fill in their space. Michaels once sold wicker furniture. Leewards (the Michaels of its day) sold cooking spices.

To comment on any or all of "Vinny's" questions, email your thoughts � on or off the record � to mike@clnonline.com. To read previous columns by industry vendors, click on the titles in the right-hand column.

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