Date: August 7, 2006
Vol. X, No. 15

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: Our Stores Need More Traffic 

One of the most interesting events at the CHA Summer Show was the Industry Forum, where CHA provided breakfast, some thought-provoking speakers, and then an opportunity for all facets of the industry to discuss the critical issues of the day. Probably the most important topic discussed, judging from the participants continuing the discussion after the Forum ended, was "How do we drive more traffic into our stores?"

The issue came to mind when I was reporting on Michaels' quarterly sales. What stood out was the 3.8% decrease in transactions. That means fewer customers in the stores. The press release blamed it on fewer sales events, but judging from the conversations at the Industry Forum, it's an issue that should concern all of us.

OK, so what should we do as retailers, vendors, and designers? What should CHA, TNNA, NAMTA, and other trade groups do? Let's keep that Industry Forum discussion going. Email your thoughts – on or off the record – to me at mike@clnonline.com.

"Vinny Da Vendor." Sugarloaf had a great CHA Summer Show, while some competitors complained. Did Sugarloaf have better products? Maybe, but at least part of the success was due to strategies before, during, and after the show. Here are the details.

Kate's Collage. Want to make the world a better place? Here's a sampling of new industry-related charitable events and promotions – using quilting, yarn, stamps, art materials, and more.

Industry Research. The CHA 2005 Attitude & Usage Study has been updated with first-quarter 2006 results. The new research is now broken out to include specific background about individual crafters as well as their purchase behavior. The Study says the industry has grown 1% to $30.1 billion since the first quarter of 2005. General and Paper Crafts and Needle and Sewing Crafts are up, but Floral Crafts and Painting and Finishing Crafts are down.

If you attended or exhibited at the CHA Summer Show, rate the show for us. Were you pleased or unhappy with the products, workshops, seminars and social events, or the size and quality of the attendance? Will you return next year? To vote, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column, or click HERE.

Maybe CLN readers are getting cynical, but they are slightly pessimistic about the effect Bain Capital and The Blackstone Group will have on Michaels, assuming the sale of the company is completed. Almost one in ten, 9.8%, believe Michaels will be much weaker, and 26.8% believe the retailer will be somewhat weaker. On the other hand, 14.6% think the new owners will make Michaels much stronger, and 12.2% believe Michaels will be somewhat stronger. The remainder, 36.6%, believe the pluses and minuses will equal each other.

Attendance was up substantially and the mood in general was upbeat. The show continued to be dominated by scrapbooking, but there was a wide variety of products offered.

Numbers. 10,247 registered attendees, up 44% increase over last year ... 134,743 net square footage of booth space, up 12% ... 420+ exhibitors in 1,338+ booths.

Vendors. They wondered what policies the new leaders at Jo-Ann's and A.C. Moore would implement. Meanwhile, they were being bombarded by investment companies asking, "Hey, wanna sell your company?" As for the show, some were very pleased, others were not – as with every other show in any industry. A number of vendors were privately showing prototypes of new lines to be unveiled later in the year or at the CHA Winter Show.

Scrapbooking. Conversations with a number of vendors indicated that the decline in the number of independent scrapbook stores may be nearing an end. Some exhibitors said there were fewer scrapbook speciality retailers, but their general level of business savvy was better. There also seemed to be a healthy lessening of the obsession with new products. A number of retailers and vendors told CLN they could not attend three shows a year. "What can CHA do for me?" two vendors told CLN, "You can buy the Memory Trends show and kill it so I don't have to do three shows a year."

Products. Plaid introduced new lines in cross-stitch and extensions of the Artistrywear and Jeaneology lines. President Mike McCooey said the company had its best summer show in at least five years. A Plaid competitor, who did not offer any new lines, questioned why he bothered to exhibit. "We'd all be better off if we put the money into marketing and pr," he said.

Jewelry. There were more beads offered than a year ago, although the variety isn't nearly as wide as it could be. This is clearly an area where independents can, with flexibility and imagination, create a department truly unique.

Licensing. It continues to grow. EK Success has partnered with Sesame Workshop to create a comprehensive Sesame Street scrapbook/paper line, available in October.

Magazines. The craft industry may be wondering about the connection between technology and crafts, but retailers in other industries are not. All American Crafts' new magazine, Creative TECHniques, has been placed in Best Buy, Circuit City, CompUSA, Staples, Office Max, and Office Depot. Visit www.creativetechniques.com ... Today's Creative Homearts, published by North American Media Group, has undergone an impressive redesign under the leadership of new Editor/Exec. Director Julie Stephani and Publisher Marynell Christenson. Visit www.creativehomeartsclub.com.

Awards, I. The Innovations (new product) award winners: 1st to Clover Needlecraft, for its Bead Embroidery Tool that makes embellishing easy. Visit www.clover-usa.com; 2nd to Who-Rae of Australia, for its Scrapbooking Workstation product that includes storage pouches, 17 pockets for scrapbooking tools, a built-in cutting board, etc.; and 3rd to Around The Block, for its Paper Tagger product which easily attaches charms, tags, etc. to craft projects. Visit www.aroundtheblockproducts.com ... Golden Press Kit awards (for the best press kits in the press room): 1st to Stone Creek Creations; 2nd to Paper Salon; and 3rd to Ellison.

Awards, II. Lisa Galvin, Lynne Farris, and Julie Stephani received Special Service awards for their dedication and efforts in uniting all designers in the industry.

Recommended Reading. Think Big Act Small, by Jason Jennings, the show's keynote speaker. Published by Penguin. If the book is half as good as Jennings' speech, it's well worth it.

Quotation. "The fact that the store owners tended to focus on products offered by a few vendors is worrisome. I learned to walk trade shows from a gift show veteran. She taught me to examine every booth from both directions. To her it was a competitive sport. You don't go to a show to see what your current vendors have to offer. That is what your reps are for. You walk the aisles searching for that obscure item that will either give you an edge or will prematurely end your business model."

2007. The Winter Show is Jan. 28-31 and the Summer Show is July 20-22. Visit www.chashow.org.

According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the total cost of the Michaels acquisition by Bain Capital and The Blackstone Group will be $6.258 billion, approximately $6.025 billion to be paid to stockholders and holders of other equity-based interests in Michaels, and the remainder to pay related fees and expenses in connection with the merger, the financing arrangements, and the related transactions.

Bain and Blackstone are putting up $2.18 billion and financing the rest. One analyst told CLN, "That is why called it's called a leveraged buy-out. At present rates Michaels has more than enough cash flow to pay interest on the $4.8 billion. The principal might be another story. In addition you will see there is around a quarter of a billion in fees related to the deal. Much of that goes to Bain and Blackstone. In addition they will draw 'fees' after the deal every year to help manage the business they own. It's all legal and the way business is done today.

"If all goes well," she added, "then they recoup their $2.18 billion in a few years: take the company back public and pay off the debt and reap a huge profit, or sell the business to another company that assumes the debt and pays them a profit. Of course if business changes and goes down, then all bets are off."

A potential fly in the ointment: rising interest rates. Bain and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts are planning to borrow $16 billion to finance the biggest leveraged buyout ever – the HCA hospital group; they may pay almost $100 million more/year in interest than they would have had to pay if the takeover had been completed in April, according to Bloomberg News.

Executive VP/Merchandising and Marketing Janet Parker entered into a separation agreement last Monday. She will receive severance of one year's compensation and agreed to a one-year non-compete clause. This follows the retirement of CEO Jack Parker and Exec VP/Merchandising Pat Parker.

In a note to clients the Wall Street firm Wedbush Morgan wrote, "We expect there could be further departures in key positions as the new CEO gets a handle on current operations and strategies at the company. While this could create some near-term earnings pressure from severance charges, this may not be such a bad thing as new thinking on key issues could help improve performance at the company for the longer-term."

The retailers' priorities, according to Wedbush Morgan, include reviewing company practices to increase margins and reduce expenses; reduce store volumes and payroll; expand direct importing from the current low double digits to about 25-30%; introduce private-label lines; and introduce "more metrics and analytics ... to emphasize accountability."

The latest rumor is Wal-Mart will exit the fabric-by-the-yard business. The new prototype in Plano, TX offers no bulk fabric and consumer message boards are calling for petitions asking the company to keep the department. Now an investment and research firm is telling its clients that fabric vendors are expecting it to happen, either removing fabric from several hundred stores at a time over a few years, or by eliminating fabric in 75%-80% of the stores in the 2007 fiscal year.

If true, this could be a major boon to Hancock, Jo-Ann's, and Hobby Lobby.

A CLN source at Wal-Mart was not able to confirm or deny the rumors.

(Comment: Wal-Mart is constantly conducting numerous tests in its stores. One of those tests a few years ago involved a store in Texas with no craft/fabric department; the test was deemed a failure and the department was restored after numerous consumer complaints.)

Brothers Charles and Sam Wyly, Chair and Vice Chair of the Michaels board of directors, have not been accused of any wrongdoing, but their offshore family trusts, considered tax havens by some, are certainly drawing attention. Last week the U.S. Senate issued a report saying cheating now equals about 7% of all taxes paid by taxpayers, as much as $70 billion a year, and highlighted the Wylys among others.

The brothers were scheduled to testify before the Senate Permanent Investigations subcommittee last week, but they told the committee they would invoke their Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination and thus were not called to testify, the New York Times reported.

In a front-page article on 7/31, the Wall Street Journal cited Sam Wyly, listed by Forbes magazine as the 346th richest American with a net worth of $1 billion: "In 2001, Dallas billionaire Sam Wyly picked from a Christie's catalog a pocket watch once owned by Franklin D. Roosevelt. But Mr. Wyly, who keeps the watch at his home, doesn't own it. Instead, it's owned by a tax-exempt company in the Isle of Man called Audubon Limited – which Mr. Wyly says he neither owns nor controls. Audubon paid $41,125 for the watch at Mr. Wyly's suggestion, a lawyer for the businessman says, and then lent it to him."

In March, 2005, CLN reported that the Securities and Exchange Commission and a federal grand jury investigated whether trusts controlled by the Wylys were not properly disclosed in SEC filings, but no charges were filed..

In June of this year Michaels announced it was being investigated by a grand jury in New York and the SEC regarding stock-option grants.

Last week's Senate report said the brothers made at least "$190 million through stock-option exercises offshore, the Times reported, "but had yet to pay taxes on most of the money. They then borrowed against their offshore accounts to buy jewelry, pay for portraits of family members, buy homes and operate properties ...."

"The Wylys believe they have paid all taxes due," William Brewer, a lawyer for the Wylys, told the Times. "And in any event, as the report makes clear, the Wylys were counseled by an armada of lawyers, brokers, financial professionals, and offshore service providers to ensure that they were at all times fully meeting their obligations."

The most interesting "product" at the CHA Summer Show was a kiosk offered by Notions Marketing. It allows retailers to offer every needlework kit carried by Notions – without carrying any inventory. Using a touch screen, a consumer can choose from every available kit and pay for it. Then when the retailer chooses, Notions' computer connects with the kiosk, downloads the orders, and ships them to the retailer, who has no inventory and no markdowns. The retailer simply calls the customer when the kit arrives, which brings the customer back in the store again. Call 800-748-0250 for details.

On the horizon is the Espresso Book Machine currently being tested at the World Bank bookstore in Washington, D.C., Newsweek reported. It is, in effect, an incredibly high-speed machine that can print and bind a book in the time it takes the customer to drink a latte. Imagine a store being able to sell every book that has ever been digitized – and not have to carry any books. This fall the New York Public Library will test it, too.

"The entire [craft] industry is in play," one veteran industry consultant told CLN. "All these investment companies looking at Michaels spent a fortune researching the industry. Those who didn't acquire Michaels will be looking around at other opportunities."

Time magazine agrees. "Flush with cash from investors seeking better-than-market returns, buyout firms are looking for places to spend the $70 billion raised so far this year, not to mention the $130 billion from last year. And they can borrow as much as $10 for every $1 they invest, meaning there aren't many companies out of reach." Consider:

1. A successful bidder for Michaels, Bain Capital, joined forces with other firms and acquired the hospital chain HCA for $30+ billion, more than five times the cost of Michaels.

2. The other successful bidder, The Blackstone Group, said it closed its $15.6 billion Blackstone Capital Partners V Fund which it said is the world's largest private equity fund.

3. After failing to acquire Michaels, Texas Pacific Group teamed with Leonard Green & Partners to buy the Petco animal supplies chain for $1.68 billion.

What's the strategy of investment firms, many of whom walked the CHA Summer Show? " ... private-equity firms acquire undervalued companies, load them with debt, overhaul operations, and then return them to the stock exchanges whence they came in ballyhooed IPOs – collecting fees at every turn," Time reported.

Hot weather and the wars in the Middle East may have kept shoppers at home watching the news (called "the CNN effect"). Nordstrom, Federated Department Stores, and J.C. Penney performed better than expected, but most others did not.

Jo-Ann's sales dropped $4.5 million, 3.8%, to $112.9 million and same-store sales decreased 6.6%. For the second quarter ended July 29, sales were down 5.4% to $363.2 million and same-store sales had decreased 8.4%. For the first two quarters: sales dropped 2.1% to $787.9 million and same-store sales decreased 6.0%.

Hancock's sales slipped 1.2% to $25.7 million, but same-store sales rose 1.3%. For the second quarter, sales are up 3.4% to $86.0 million and same-store sales have risen 4.6%. Year-to-date, sales are still down 0.8% and same-store sales are down 0.3%, including a 5.5% benefit from stores being liquidated in connection with store-closing sale events.

Wal-Mart's same-store sales rose a better-than-expected 2.4% in U.S. stores, due to cutting prices on school supplies and clothing to attract cash-strapped shoppers, Reuters reported. Target's same-store sales rose 3.1%, but that was less than analysts expected and lower than the 4-6% increase the company had originally predicted.

Others's same-store sales: Walgreen, +9.7% ... Family Dollar, +7.5% ... Duckwall-ALCO, +6.2% ... Dollar General, +4.6% ... Big Lots, +3.8 % ... Pier 1, -14.9%.

Total sales rose 3.1% to $768.3 million, but same-store sales slipped 0.3%, due to a 2.9% increase in average ticket, a 2.6% decrease in transactions, and a 0.6% decrease in custom frame deliveries.

For the year, sales have increased 2.2% to $1.6 billion and same-store sales are down 1.7%. There has been a 3.8% decrease in transactions and a 2.1% increase in average ticket. A favorable Canadian currency translation added approximately 0.6% to the average ticket. increase for the second quarter and approximately 0.5% for the first six months of fiscal 2006.

The company reported same-store sales were affected by ongoing programs to reduce the level of promotional and clearance sales, and a considerable reduction in average per store clearance and discontinued inventory during the quarter. The decrease in promotional and clearance sales on a same-store basis was almost entirely offset by a solid increase in regular price sales on a same-store basis for the quarter.

The leading regions for the quarter were the Southeast, Southwest, and Northeast, and the strongest categories were general crafts, primarily driven by jewelry/beads, apparel crafts, impulse items, and kids crafts.

The second-quarter financial report will be released Aug. 23. Execs expect it to show a 25%-42% increase in earning/share of $0.15-$0.17, inclusive of a number of incremental items.

Sales for the second quarter grew 14% to $129.8 million and same-store sales rose 3.0%. There was a net loss of $1.8 million ($0.09/share), compared with a loss of $50,000 ($0.00) a year ago, but this year's loss included pre-tax expenses of $1.8 million ($0.05) related to severance and recruiting costs regarding management changes. The company also began expensing stock-based recruiting costs in January, which resulted in another pre-tax expense of $885,000 ($0.03).

New CEO Rick Lepley said he was pleased with the increases in total and same-store sales, but "We are not satisfied with our operating margins and our future plans are focused on improving our merchandise margins and reducing our SG&A expenses."

Year to date, sales are up 11% to $236.4 million; same-store sales grew less than 1%. There was a net loss of $1.5 million ($0.08) compared to a net income of $1.2 million ($0.06) a year ago, but the management-change and stock-option expenses were $3.6 million.

1. In a previous issue I complimented Wal-Mart for planning to open a store in my old neighborhood on Chicago's west side, which now looks like a bombed-out war zone and desperately needs investment and jobs. Now the Chicago city counsel, in its, uh, wisdom, passed an ordinance that will require big-box retailers to pay employees $10/an hour and another $3 in fringe benefits by July, 2010. The ordinance basically applies only to Wal-Mart and Target. Now plans for the store are in limbo. Do the good, job-hungry people in that neighborhood deserve more than minimum wage? Of course they do. But now there may not be any jobs at all.

Meanwhile, a federal judge in Baltimore struck down a new state law requiring Wal-Mart to boost spending on employee health care, saying it violated a federal law that promotes uniform treatment of employers. In other words, you can't pass a law that affects only one retailer.

2. Kudos to Beth Hess for her article, "Buried in Product" in the August issue of Craftrends. It should be required reading for scrapbook vendors and retailers.

DESIGNERS. Sugarloaf is sponsoring a Designer Project Gallery Contest with $1,200+ in prizes – and designers retain all publication rights so they can later submit the projects to publishers. Info is available at www.sugarloafproducts.com. Click on the "Designer Gallery Contest" icon for details for uploading projects. The deadline is Sept. 15.

SIGN OF THE TIMES? Chicago's Art Institute is one of the great art museums of the world, and its School of the Art Institute has a world-wide reputation. The school is now accepting registration for a new class, "Digital Scrapbooking."

MEDIA. Meredith, publisher of Better Homes & Gardens Scrapbooks etc., announced a partnership with InXpo, an online convention provider, to launch Uptown Scrap, the first online consumer scrapbook show. The five-day show is scheduled for February and November, 2007. It will include an ideas gallery and education sessions, and offer techniques and products, with the ability to buy products at the show. Because it is online, the show will run around the clock.

SALES. A recent study by the market research firm, NPD Group, indicated back-to-school sales, often a harbinger of Christmas sales, may be slow this year, CNNMoney.com reported. The survey of 34,000 consumers indicated they were delaying purchasing school supplies and planned to spend no more than they did last year.

YARN. The Craft Yarn Council of America has reached an agreement with Minneapolis' Mall of America, the largest enclosed mall in the U.S., to hold a two-day Knit-Out & Crochet event on Feb. 17-18, President’s Weekend. Exhibit space will include all of the first level event areas in front of the anchor stores (Nordstroms, Macy’s, Bloomingdales, and Sears), as well as the main Rotunda arena where special events will be staged.

UNION. Thirty Wal-Mart employees started a union in Jinjiang, Quanzhou, in the Fujian province of China, the first in Wal-Mart's 59 China stores. Wal-Mart entered the Chinese mainland in 1996 and now has stores in 30 cities, employing at least 20,000 people.

PAPER. EK Success launched a new division focusing on the wedding and baby industries, and hired Lori LoVullo to lead the division as VP of Business Development and Diana Hoffman as Dir. of Product Development, Wedding. TECHNOLOGY. Jo-Ann's has deployed mobile computers and a wireless infrastructure in 164 superstores and 114 traditional stores. The system reportedly allows clerks to process and complete special order requests, check prices, stock inventory, and enact immediate price changes without leaving the sales floor. All new stores will have the technology, and eventually it will be installed in all existing stores.

CONSULTING. Mike Dupey, the founder of Michaels and MJ Designs has started a consulting business. Call 469-522-1307 or email m.dupey@comcast.net.

DESIGNERS. The Society of Creative Designers, which is composed of the industry’s leading artists and product developers, unanimously decided to join CHA’s membership, and file for Chapter 7 liquidation. This unites designers within the industry as CHA designer members.

GIFTS. Although numerous vendors reported receiving strong orders, the consensus was that traffic was down at the recent shows in Atlanta, Dallas, and Chicago, and LA.

HOME DEC. Gerson Int. unveiled the Mary Carol Home Collection under a licensing agreement with Mary Carol Garrity. Email Brand Manager Liz Hjalmarson at lhjalmarson@gersoncompany.com or call 888-223-8139.

LOOKING TO HIRE. Polyform is looking for a Sales Manager/Key Account Manager. At least five years experience in sales and management with mass merchants, national and regional chains, and independents. Strong communication and presentation skills. Send resume/salary requirements to Human Resources Manager, Polyform Products Company, 1901 Estes Ave., Elk Grove Village, IL 60007 or email sales@polyformproducts.com.

TV. America Sews with Sue Hausmann continues to roll along. The 23rd series uplinks Oct. 1, produced by KS, Inc. The accompanying book, with a DVD of all 13 episodes, is available. Call 800-358-0001.

ART. More than 68% of the available booth space for the 2007 National Art Materials Assn. trade show in Chicago Apr. 19-21. For more info, visit www.namta.org.

NEEDLEWORK. Pre-registration is still available for the cash-and-carry Phoenix Needlecraft Market Aug. 27-28. Visit www.tnna.org/phoenix_market.php ... The hotel room block for the 2007 NeedleArts Market, June 2-4 in Columbus, has been completed. Visit www.tnna.org ... The recent Knit & Crochet show in King of Prussia, PA attracted approximately 3,000 enthusiasts.

Sales. New A.C. Moore CEO Rick Lepley left his former employer, Office Depot, in good shape. Sales for the second quarter grew 4% to $3.5 billion and net earnings grew18% to $118 million. Lepley had been Exec VP of North America for the company.

BOOKS. The number of products aimed at the "Generation Y" demographic is growing. C&T Publishing has released Make it You - Sew Hip, by Shannon Mullen, the first in a new series to introduce sewing to young adults. It's a reference and project book designed to teach basic sewing know-how to and features 10 skill-building projects including belts, bags, pillows, and a quilt. Visit www.ctpub.com/productdetails.cfm?SKU=10482. For more info about the Make It You program, visit www.makeitu.com.

ART. The National Art Materials Trade Assn. launched a consumer website under the theme, "Unleash your inner artist. It's at www.artinfonet.com and is supported by advertising. Consumers are encouraged to explore the world of art materials and visit art stores without feeling intimidated. For info, visit www.namta.org or call 704-892-6244.

DISABILITIES. Jo-Ann's reached a settlement with the Dept. of Justice resolving alleged violations of the Americans with Disabilities Act. The agreement covers entrances, the size of aisles, merchandise display areas, fabric cutting areas, check-out counters, etc., at new and existing stores, MarketWatch reported.

1. Jo-Ann's promoted James Kerr, 44, to Exec. VP/CFO from VP/Controller and Chief Accounting Officer. Kerr has been with Jo-Ann's for eight years. Prior to that, he worked at The Limited, Revco, and Arthur Anderson.

2. Wal-Mart hired Harriet Hentges, a former nun who helped mediate conflicts in Iraq and the Balkans, to work with groups that have criticized how the retailer affects the environment and treats workers, Bloomberg News reported..

3. The Duckwall-ALCO board gave CEO Bruce Dale a five-year contract extension, citing the company's progress under his leadership. Dale is a former Michaels exec. The company's sales rose 10.2% and same-store sales were up 6.2% in July.

4. CHA named Christine Cutti-Fox as Member Education Manager. She had been Conference Manager for the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants.

5. Lion Brand Yarn named Hilary Tyor as VP of Sales and Ilana Rabinowitz as VP of Marketing.

6. Our very best wishes to Betty Rosskamm, one of the founders of Jo-Ann's who has retired after working at Jo-Ann's for 63+ years. She began working in the first store in 1943 while in high school, and later was responsible for buying fabrics.

To see the latest listings by the only personnel recruitment firm specializing in our industry, click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

A. C. Moore (ACMR). Last*: 16.84 ... Change**: -0.27
Hancock Fabrics (HKF). Last*: 3.12 ... Change**: -0.12
Jo-Ann Stores (JAS). Last*: 14.21 ... Change**: +1.59
Michaels (MIK). Last*: 42.59 ... Change**: +0.43
Wal-Mart (WMT). Last*: 44.74 ... Change**: +1.64
CLN Retail Index. Last*: 121.50 ... Change**: +2.8%
Dow Jones Index. Last*: 11,240.75 ... Change**: +4.7%

Apparently a couple of pigeons were trapped inside the Rosemont Center during the CHA Summer Show. And yes, the pigeons, uh, relieved themselves on buyers in the booth of a well known vendor.

When pigeons do that to you inside a trade show, maybe it's time to go home.

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