Date: May 1, 2006
Vol. X, No. 9

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: WAIT AND SEE ... SALES SLUMP  

The industry appears to be in a quiet, wait-and-see mode these days, which is understandable, but not particularly healthy. Some manufacturers seem to have slowed down their new product development, hiring, and other investments, waiting to see who is hired as CEO at A.C. Moore and Jo-Ann's, and who buys Michaels. Some vendors are asking, "Should I spend all this money for a new line when I don't know in what directions the new CEO's and owners will take the companies? All this work, and then not get a straight answer from the buyers because they don't know, either?"

We may see fewer new products at trade shows until these questions are answered. And of course, a decline in the number of new products certainly won't help industry sales.

Business-Wise. The last issue of CLN included "10 Questions the Industry Is Asking" and subscribers responded with some of the most thought-provoking, blunt answers CLN has ever published. An excerpt is published below, but their complete responses are well worth reading. You may not agree with everything you read, but it will make you think.

Kate's Collage. A funny excerpt from the new novel, Talk Gertie To Me, by noted needlework designer Lois Winston.

Industry Research. CLN has added to its list of all the industry-related market research studies a new one from the School, Home, & Office Products Assn. (SHOPA).

Store Design Tips. Practical advice for "customer comfort," your checkout counter, and your store's exit zone.

Reminder: With the summer trade shows coming up, vendors need to maximize their investment in their exhibits. Last year industry and public relations pro Kindra Foster wrote "Trade Show Press Pointers" and "Anatomy of a Product Press Release." They still ring true today.

Today tens of thousands of people, mostly of Hispanic origin, were supposed to not go to work and/or boycott U.S. businesses as a protest against the bill passed by the House of Representatives that would label illegal immigrants as felons. Was their effort successful? Retailers, did you notice a drop in sales from a usual Monday in May? Everyone: if you have any Hispanic employees, did any of them not show up for work today? To vote, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE.

The debate over Wal-Mart has divided the country and – no surprise – our industry, too. Almost a third (32.2%) of CLN voters in this unscientific poll believe Wal-Mart is good for the country; 42.4% say it's bad for the U.S., and 25.4% think it's too close to call.

The negative feeling is stronger when the question is the effect on our industry. Just over a quarter (25.5%), think the discounter is good for the industry. Almost half (49%) believe Wal-Mart is bad for the industry, and 25.5% aren't sure one way or another. (Reminder: To CLN's knowledge, the most evenhanded analysis of Wal-Mart is the new book, The Wal-Mart Effect, by Charles Fishman. CLN strongly recommends it, no matter how you feel about the company.)

Last summer many in the industry claimed rising oil prices were hurting our industry's sales. Now, as the price of gasoline climbs to $4 and beyond, we're faced with an even more serious situation – if gas prices are the culprit we think they are.

But the problem may be more deep-seated. The 4/23 edition of Parade cited some disturbing statistics: A) The real median household income fell 3% from 2000 to 2004. B) During the same time period, the percentage of households earning $25,000 to $99,000 shrank 1.5%. C) Last year real average weekly earnings fell 0.4%. D) The savings rate is the lowest it's been since the Great Depression, and credit card debt is at a record $9,312 per household. Then add the rising health care costs and the fear of future job out-sourcing and you have a middle class that doesn't feel like crafting as much as they might otherwise. Unless....

1. A cardinal rule in the industry has always been that a product or group of products will be successful if the consumer understands that making a project will save a substantial amount of money over buying a readymade.

Yet many retailers focus on cutting the price of the product without showing consumers how that product can be used to save money. Who cares what the price of acrylic paint is, if consumers don't know what to do with it?

2. Instead of advertising "Half off on all art supplies," retailers could show a stenciled desk or a painted bird house and say "Make it yourself and save!"

3. Retailers could also emphasize that making a project results in a one-of-a-kind item, something that can't be bought anywhere. Whether it's personalizing a pair of jeans with rhinestones or fabric paint, knitting a unique scarf, or making a special necklace – a craft store is the only option. Scrapbooks always result in a unique project, but keeping them simple – and therefore less expensive – will probably entice more newcomers.

4. Finally, the satisfaction and relaxation of making something yourself will always be a benefit our stores can offer. But in this cash-strapped era, if consumers are excited enough ("Oh, I want THAT!") they will find the money to buy the products. An Italian shoe manufacturer once said, "I don't sell shoes, I sell beautiful feet."

Retailers are at the mercy of rising gas prices, but they are not helpless to act.

Chartpak acquired the selected assets and rights of the painting and craft business segment of Craft House Corp. The brands acquired are Craft House® and its painting and craft business product lines, including Original Paint by Number® guided art kits; Sun Catcher™ paint-it-yourself plastic window ornaments; Etched in Slate™ grayscale painting on simulated slate; Skilcraft® science-based activity kits for children; Kreative Kids™ activity kits;  WHEE-LO® original magnetic spinning toy; and others.

Chartpak's brands include Chartpak® for graphics art, KOH-I-NOOR® for art materials, Pelikan® for art materials and fine writing, Clearprint® for media, Frances Meyer® for scrapbooking, and now, Craft House® for painting, crafts and science activity kits.

"Chartpak intends to expand the strategic focus of Craft House as a provider of paint, craft, and science-based educational and leisure time products," says President Steven Roth. "This acquisition complements and enhances the Chartpak product offering. Utilizing our current market expertise and technologies, our creative teams will be able to develop new and exciting Craft House branded products."

For more info, call 413-584-5446 or 800-628-1910, fax 800-762-7918, email info@chartpak.com, or visit www.chartpak.com.

Michaels should be an attractive acquisition for investors – a market leader, strong cash flow, no debt, etc. - but the sale of the company may take longer than expected, Reuters reported. The problem is the number of retail operations and store leases that are on the block with Michaels.

The long list includes 80 redundant locations owned by Federated Department Stores after it bought the May Department Store chain last year, Lord & Taylor, David's Bridal, After Hours Formalwear, Priscilla of Boston, and Jones Apparel Group, which owns Nine West and Barneys. Meanwhile, Saks is selling its Parisian department store chain, and 27 former Wal-Mart and Sam's Club leased locations are up for sale.

"Investors should keep in mind that this (auction) process will take longer than most initially expected and will by its very nature be lumpy," FTN Midwest Securities Corp. analyst Jeff Stinson told Reuters.

The 4/26 edition of the Wall Street Journal included a glowing review of yet another Internet site/service that has ominous implications for the sales of scrapbook products. The site is Smilebox (www.smilebox.com). "It offers templates for creating attractive virtual scrapbooks, slide shows, photo-books, postcards, and greetings using your photos, which automatically load into blank image space holders. Once finished, a simple step lets you email a Web link of your Smilebox creation to anyone."

The reviewer tested a beta version – the official launch is June 1 – and made a scrapbook, postcard, and a photo book, and did not shop in a craft or scrapbook store for supplies.

He concluded, "We found Smilebox simply enjoyable. It jazzed up our photos with fun designs, gave us the ability to see the final product during any stage of our creating process, and didn't take long to use. If you're looking for a new way to share digital photos, this company's Web site is well worth a look."

Elaine Schmidt of Elaine Schmidt Designs said, "This is definitely the future of creative pastime pursuits - for the young and techno, as well as those of us who don't want to acquire more material things to fill up the bookshelves of our homes. This type of service will definitely have an impact on our industry in the future and everyone should be made aware of it."

Sales for the first quarter grew 8.2% to $132.9 million, but same-store sales decreased by 1.8%. Net income for the quarter was $136,000 ($0.01/diluted share), which includes a net tax expense of $555,000 ($0.03) for stock-based compensation. On average, eight analysts polled by First Call/Thomson Financial expected the company to report breakeven results. Net income a year ago was $1.25 million ($0.06).

CEO Jack Parker said, "Our first quarter results continued to be impacted by the significant decline in our yarn business. We are encouraged by the improvement in sales in the other merchandise categories including jewelrymaking, seasonal, and basic crafts, which increased almost 6% in comp stores. As that trend continues in 2006, it will help us return to positive growth for the remainder of the year."

Not that long ago e-commerce craft sites were the talk of the industry's trade shows. How times have changed. Michaels has stopped selling anything on its website except gift cards, Internet Retailer reported. The site started with a wide range of products, then shrunk to just framed prints. The site had ranked #274 in the Internet Retailer "Top 400 Guide to Retail Web Sites."

"Crafters and home decor enthusiasts are passionate about their creative endeavors and want to be able to touch products and see colors in person," says Sr. Marketing VP David Abelman. "While most crafters research product offerings via the Internet, they make their purchases in store."

Meanwhile, IdeaForest named Diana Schulz as CEO, replacing Founder/CEO Rich Bergsund who resigned. IdeaForest operates Joann.com for Jo-Ann's and still offers 40,000 SKU's on its website; it's the market leader in craft e-commerce, according to Internet Retailer. Schulz had been SVP Corporate Development and Strategic Planning for Universal Studios.

(Note: The rising price of oil may test the two companies' approach to e-commerce. Should a chain's website primary function be to drive traffic to the stores, or can it be a highly profitable "store" on its own? Will our industry's e-commerce grow because of high gas prices? Email your thoughts to CLN at mike@clnonline.com.)

In the last issue CLN listed "10 Questions the Industry Is Asking" and received a number of interesting answers. They are all in Business-Wise, but here are some excerpts from the first question, "Has scrapbooking peaked, or is it still growing but some sales are being siphoned off by non-industry retailers? If so, how do we get those sales back?"

1. Office Depot has replaced its scrapbooking section with school supplies. Target is replacing it with gift bags and wrapping paper. Has scrapbooking peaked? Yes. Is this a bad thing? Not if we learn something from it.

Like every craft these days, it starts with home parties, moves to independent stores, and gets taken on by the chains. They chew it up and spit it out. What's left is a small, interesting business that if lucky will continue long enough for a resurgence ten years later. (Scrapbooking won't last that long. Digital is changing the way you print photos and the average scrapbooking item sells for too little to generate good sales per sq. ft.)

I think scrapping peaked about the same time Wall Street dubbed it the next big thing. Maybe not in dollars for vendors, but certainly in terms of the number of participants. Fortune magazine said it was an up-and-coming trend and the big box retailers took notice. Sales surged as vendors stocked stores. But stocking stores with merchandise that gets dumped into sale bins a few months later is not a good business model. You don't become a hobbyist by rummaging through a sale bin (If you're in the sales bin, you are already hooked).

Now the home party people have lost their way, the independents are either looking for ways out of their leases or for other products to sell, the craft chains are groping for the next big thing, and vendors are booking into every show in a desperate attempt to find a new customer to sell to. Only the big retailers have moved on. – Rob Bostick, JudiKins

2.The first phase of scrapbooking has peaked, and I think many of the potential first-phase consumers have used the photos from their piles. The digital cameras are here to stay and I think might be having a negative impact on scrapbooking, because people are doing different things with the pictures regarding storage, printing, etc. I think scrapbooking can do better by embracing the digital age and using technology in the stores and in product at the front end, like retailers do in back-office operation.

Yes sales are being siphoned off by non industry retailers. The way to get them back is innovation, product knowledge and service. – Peter Heinsimer, Westlake Associates

3. I think the answer is EVERY Category has peaked and will follow a "reverse" graph to the price of gas. Simplistic I know, but for those shops tracked these past three years, it is proving true. The anomalies are those with strong on-line presences. – Wheat Carr, Wandering Wolf Design

(Note: To read more thought-provoking answers to all of the questions, visit www.clnonline.com and click on Business-Wise in the left-hand column. To agree, disagree, or add another thought, email CLN at mike@clnonline.com.)

The knit/crochet trend may have slowed, so the public relations efforts to promote the category are more important than ever.

EVENT. The Saturday before Easter, the Craft Yarn Council of America teamed with the NYC Parks Dept. for its annual EGGstravaganza, first time that crochet, knitting and yarn crafts were offered. CYCA Exec. Dir. Mary Colucci said the response was overwhelming. "It was like the NY Knit-Out on steroids." In the four hours of the event, CYCA taught approximately 600 people (mostly kids) to knit or crochet and as many as 1,750 to make the yarn crafts.

MEDIA. The Dallas Morning News (Apr. 17) and the Chicago Tribune (Apr. 5) published major feature stories on the value of knitting. The Tribune quoted Ann Webster, director of the cancer and HIV/AIDS program at the Mind/Body Medical Institute in Chestnut Hill, MA and an instructor at the Harvard Medical School: "When you knit, you get into a meditative state, which elicits the state of peacefulness." ... CLN learned Meredith is publishing eight yarn titles this year. The company recently bought a digital agency, O'Grady Meyers, to expand its marketing offerings online. This could ultimately result in stronger yarn sales.

TV. The Oxygen network will re-run the knitting show pilot, Stitchcraft, on May 19, 7:30 pm EDT; May 20, 4 pm; and May 21, 2:30 pm. For more info, visit www.oxygen.com.

DATES. The 2006 Knit-Out & Crochet in New York will be Sun., Sept. 17 in Union Square Park. The Capital Crocheters & Knitters, sponsors of the Washington, DC Knit-Out, are taking a year to reevaluate how the event is run and managed.:

CHARITY. Cheryl Gunnells, Exec Dir. of Publications for Leisure Arts, is the new president of the Warm Up America Foundation ... The May issue of Dynamic Resource Group's Creative Knitting magazine includes info and projects for Guideposts' Knit for Kids program, which gives knitted sweaters to needy children around the world. Knit for Kids began in 1996; thus far 300,000+ sweaters have been knit and distributed. To learn more about Knit for Kids, visit www.creativeknittingmagazine.com.

1. Now I'm going to sound like a broken record; I sure wish vendors in categories such as scrapbooking, painting, and cross stitch would join forces to promote their categories the way the knit/crochet vendors have done. Yarn sales have slowed, but I bet they're still higher than they were three years ago, and they will remain higher thanks to the CYCA.

2. I thought Martha Stewart's licensing deal with EK Success would be a huge boon to the industry because she would have a vested interest in bringing people into our stores. Turns out, Martha has lots of vested interests: her deal with Kmart for various home products; a new deal with Federated Department Stores (Macy's) to design higher-end home products; and now she has a licensing deal with Safavieh for a line of Martha rugs which will be sold in furniture and rug stores. She even has a deal with KB Home, a home builder. Her first "branded community" was unveiled in March in Cary, NC and others are in the works.

SHOWS. Online registration for the CHA Summer Show (July 21-23) is now available. Visit www.chashow.org. One special event is "Chicago, My Kind of Town" featuring the acclaimed Second City comedy troupe, a buffet dinner, and dancing to a 10-piece orchestra. It's Sat., July 22, 6–9:30 pm at the Hyatt. Advance tickets are $35, $50 on site. To register, members need their CHA member ID and zip code. (If you do not know your Member ID, email membership@craftandhobby.org.) The show has also added the popular Winter Show feature, the Innovations showcase of new products.

EVENTS. The National Scrapbooking Assn. has a logo for use to promote National Scrapbooking Day which is this Saturday. Download it and get more info at www.nationalscrapbookingday.com.

BEADS. Popular bead authors Katie Hacker (www.hiptobead.com), Jamie Hogsett, and Jeannette Cook will share the stage on Author Day, and Karlis Karklins and Alice Scherer will give free lectures and presentations at Bead Expo '06, May 17-21 in Charleston, SC. More than 6,000 are expected to attend for the shopping, classes, lectures, consultations with Beadwork magazine editors, and a gallery of The Beaded Figure art exhibit.

PEOPLE. Aida Alvarez, former administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration, and James Cash, Jr., retired professor of business administration at Harvard, were nominated to the board of directors of Wal-Mart.

AUTHORS. Needlework designer and author Lois Winston has sold another novel, Love, Lies, and a Mocha Latte, a romantic suspense novel whose heroine is a renowned needle artist whose works are sought-after collectibles. The book will again be published by Dorchester Publishing and is slated for release the second half of 2007. To read an excerpt from Lois' first novel, Talk Gertie To Me, click on Kate's Collage in the left-hand column or click HERE. Lois has a project in the latest (June) issue of The Cross Stitcher.

DECORATIVE ARTS COLLECTION. Hired Andy Jones as its Director. The museum remains in Wichita, KS, but the business office is in Atlanta. Contact Andy by email andyjones@decorativeartscollection.org); mail (PO Box 18028, Atlanta, GA 30316); or phone (404-627-3662). The DAC Museum is at 393 N. McLean Blvd., Wichita, KS 67203 ... The DAC will host two events on June 6 during the Society of Decorative Painters Conference in Nashville – the DAC Forum with Mary Jo Leisure and an Evening with the DAC during which Andy will provide a close-up view of some of the contemporary and historic painted treasures that are a part of the DAC’s collection ... Winners of DAC Awards Competition will also be announced at the SDP convention. It's an international juried competition providing cash purchase awards, including the $1,500 Joan Johnson Award of Excellence sponsored by Delta Color; $1000 first place sponsored by Steph’s Folk Art Studio; $600 second place sponsored by Sun-K; and $400 third place sponsored by Stan Brown’s Arts & Crafts. To learn more about the DAC, click on Kate's Collage in the left-hand column, then The Decorative Arts Collection in the right-hand column.

NEEDLEWORK. "The needlearts are the new yoga" is heard often recently, and now they will be together on May 21 at the Philadelphia Museum of Art. The program is "Yoga Unites" at the Healthy Living Expo presented by Living Beyond Breast Cancer and TNNA's Stitch to WIN Against Breast Cancer. For more, visit www.LBBC.org or contact Sherry Mulne at bdirect@Columbus.rr.com or 614-237-0700.

WAREHOUSES. Michaels is relocating its Southeast seasonal distribution center from Savannah, GA., to Jacksonville, FL, the Business Journal of Jacksonville reported. It will be almost 285,000 sq. ft., five miles from a 506,000-sq.-ft., everyday-item distribution center with 160 full-time employees; the seasonal center will employ about 50 full-time workers and about 100 temporary jobs during peak periods. Michaels execs told the Journal they expect to increase the shipping containers it moves through Jacksonville to about 4,000 a year from 1,000.

MARTHA. For the first quarter, Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia lost $6.8 million ($0.13/share) compared with a loss of $19.2 million ($0.38) a year ago. The improvement was due to a 60% increase in revenue, driven by better magazine ad sales. The company announced it would be starting a new Martha "how-to" website in early 2007. (Note: CLN bets that's where her upcoming scrapbook and craft products will be promoted.)

MEDIA. Watch for a new magazine, Craft: Make Cool Stuff, from the publishers of Make, which is wildly popular with young people. Available this fall; this looks like it will not be your traditional craft magazine. Visit http://makezine.com/craft.

ROLODEX. M. C. G. Textiles moved to a new facility. M.C.G. manufacturers needlework fabrics and associated textile products; key lines include Care Bears™ and Precious Moments™ products; others include latch hook kits, open-stock, pre-cut yarn and accessories; fabric and novelty yarn locker hooking books and accessories, etc. The address is 596 Crane St. Lake Elsinore, CA. 92530-2737. Call 951 674-1350 or 800-856-2499; fax 951-674-6514. Visit www.mcgtextiles.com and email sales@mcgtextiles.com.

PHONES. Tired of calling a company and getting an automated phone system when you want to speak to a real person? Visit www.gethuman.com/us which will give you the strategy for getting an actual human being on the phone at major US. companies.

YARN. Circles in suburban Boston is one of the most interesting yarn shops CLN has seen, and this summer owner Allison Nevitt will be giving up half her ownership by selling shares to the community. Visit www.circles-salon.com.

GARDEN RIDGE. Is expanding again. The company, which emerged from bankruptcy a year ago, signed a 15-year lease for a 134,465 sq.-ft. store, its fifth store in the Houston area.

ELECTION. The Craft & Hobby Assn. Nominating Committee Chair, Jane Marski (Hannah’s Home Accents), reports that CHA is now accepting nominations for candidates for three-year terms for the Board of Directors beginning in 2007. To nominate someone, visit the "Members Only" section of www.craftandhobby.org, call 201-794-1133, or email memberservices@craftandhobby.org. The deadline is Aug. 4. The Committee includes Richard Brown (Sunrise Craft and Hobby), Ted Hesemann (Herrschner’s), Georgeanne Bender (Kizer & Bender), Karen Bremer (The Red Bee), and Lynda Musante (Cardinal Brands).

PR. Industry trend pro Ellie Joos tells CLN Ellen DeGeneres tv series now has a new segment in which viewers can call her and teach her to do something, over the phone. "How about if people from the craft industry try to get in on this?" Ellie asked. (Note: Good question!) In one segment Ellen had a 10-year-old boy on who makes wonderful origami animals and sells them to raise money for Katrina victims. At the end of the segment, Ellen told him that A.C. Moore was giving him $1,000 worth of origami paper and donating $5,000 to his particular charity. To learn more, visit http://ellen.warnerbros.com.

SCRAPBOOKING. The pilot of Scrapbook LifeStyle is now online at http://scrapbooklifestyle.com/default.aspx. There will be a new three-minute show each weekday featuring various designers creating pages, and hosted by Tony Barber.

SCRAPBOOKING. How ubiquitous has it become? A contributor to a TwoPeas message board heard an Orkin radio commercial in which if the husband lost a bet with his wife he would have to take her to a scrapbook show.

ALTERED BOOKS. The Galveston Daily News recently featured a article on altered books and highlighted a local group, Mixed Medians, which meets at a local Hobby Lobby, and directed readers to a Yahoo group, http://groups.yahoo.com/group/mixedmedians and the Int. Society of Altered Book Artists at www.alteredbookartists.com.

COLLAGE. Kristine Kadlec Studios created a list of books, articles, collage organizations, and websites for collage. Visit www.kristinekadlec.com/learning_collage.html.

PAINT. Sherwin-Williams, the parent of Krylon, Dutch Boy, and Duron paints, reported its first-quarter profit jumped 36.5% to $113.7 million.

BEADS. Last Saturday all of the Michaels stores offered jewelry make-it/take-its and demos for four hours.

ROLODEX. As of today, Rose Art has become MEGA Brands America.– Mega Bloks acquired Rose Art last year. A new distribution facility has opened in Fife, WA and manufacturing and distribution in Eugene, OR will be phased out. Invoices should now be mailed to Mega Brands America, 6 Regent St., Ste. 150, Livingston, NJ 07039. Call 973-535-1313, ext. 1135.

MARKETING. To read some excellent marketing tips for small businesses, visit www.babyshopmagazine.com/spring06/mareketingtips.htm.

To see a more extensive listing of job openings from the only personnel recruitment firm specializing in our industry, click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

A. C. Moore (ACMR). Last*: 18.65 ... Change**: +0.41
Hancock Fabrics (HKF). Last*: 3.51 ... Change**: +0.22
Jo-Ann Stores (JAS). Last*: 12.26 ... Change**: -0.23
Michaels (MIK). Last*: 37.83 ... Change**: +0.82
Wal-Mart (WMT). Last*: 45.03 ... Change**: -0.74
CLN Retail Index. Last*: 162.46 ... Change**: +0.4%
Dow Jones Index. Last*: 10,877.51 ... Change**: +2.1%

For a couple of years I've been blaming it on lack of sleep, not enough sunshine, too much pressure from my job, etc. But now I found out the real reason: I'm overworked. Here's why:

The population of the U.S. is 273 million. 140 million are retired – that leaves 133 million to do the work. There are 85 million in school. Which leaves 48 million to do the work.

Of this there are 29 million employed by the federal government, leaving 19 million to do the work. 2.8 million are in the armed forces, which leaves 16.2 million to do the work.

Take from the total the 14.8 million people who work for state government and that leaves 1.4 million to do the work. At any given time there are 188,000 people in hospitals, leaving 1,212,000 to do the work. And there are 1,211,998 people in prisons, leaving just two people to do the work.

You and me. And there you are sitting on your butt, at your computer, reading jokes. Nice, real nice.

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xxx

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