Date: February 6, 2006
Vol. X, No. 3

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: CHA a Pleasant Surprise  

Last week the industry gathered in Las Vegas, concerned about a spate of recent negative retail reports (Treasure Island, Lewiscraft, Hancock) and worrisome rumors about others. I was afraid buyers would be troubled, depressed, and pessimistic – and that gloom and doom would carry over to exhibitors.

Not so. Attendance hovered around 20,000, and most exhibitors were pleased with the traffic, buyer interest – and orders. It was a true convention, too, not just a trade show. Attendance at seminars, receptions, and other events was much stronger than I expected, from the new-member reception, the keynote speech, and the unveiling of the new CHA research to the "20 Retail Trends" seminar and the La Reve evening. More important, I saw a number of positive business trends on the show floor.

The CHA staff clearly seems to have hit its stride in show management, which bodes well for the summer show in July.

All in all, the show was a badly needed shot in the arm for the industry.

"Benny Da Buyer". Did this Ben Franklin shut its doors because of poor sales or management? Nope. The landlord was the culprit. Read the nightmare tale here.

Scene & Heard. Views of the recent TNNA show from exhibitors and the organization.

Remaining Online: "New Trade Show Exhibitors." The names, brief descriptions, and links to the websites of the new TNNA and CHA exhibitors in case you've returned home and can't quite remember which newcomer offered what.

Ok, so how were the TNNA and CHA shows? Outstanding? Very good? OK? Not very good? Poor? To vote, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE. Below is a report on what CLN readers expected; in the next issue CLN will compare your expectations to your actual experience.

CLN POLL: YOUR TRADE SHOW EXPECTATIONS

Buyers and sellers alike traveled to San Diego and Las Vegas with strong expectations that the TNNA and CHA shows would be productive. Almost a quarter of voters in CLN's unscientific poll, 23.3%, expected the show(s) to be "outstanding"; 29% thought they would be "very good"; 38.7% thought they'd be "ok"; only 6.5% expected them to be "not very good"; and a mere 3.2% thought they would be poor.

The 2005 Attitude & Usage Study pegged the size of the industry at $30.6 billion, as a result of 3.8% annual growth since the 2002 study. The full study will be available in the members section of the CHA website, www.craftandhobby.org, in about a week. (Some results raised some eyebrows, but those questions will be raised in a CLN interview in an upcoming issue.)

The winners of the Smart Store's 3,500 sq. ft. store (inventory, technology, displays – everything) were John and Camille Akin, owners of Ever After Scrapbooks in Carlsbad, CA. Perfect timing: the Akins had just signed a lease to expand their store. (But the 4 pm drawing drew hundreds of retailers off the show floor.)

The History of Crafts display and the sold-out seminar featuring Aleene Jackson and her family was a huge hit with attendees, many of whom had no idea about the seeds of the modern craft industry. For example, the display showed a photo of Aleene spreading the craft "gospel." The photo was in an issue of Life magazine published 53 years ago.

The keynote speaker, Tim Sanders, was excellent. He cited numerous research studies indicating "likeable" people receive more attention from doctors, sell substantially more, etc. (If you missed it, read his book, The Likeability Factor, published by Crown Publishers.)

There appeared to be the beginning of the pendulum swinging back from a complete emphasis on only the hottest trends (scrapbooking, yarn, etc.) to interest in a wider variety of categories – wearable art, cross stitch, needlepoint, embellishing/personalizing, etc. CLN even heard that a major retailer was considering re-introducing miniatures. While the scrapbook section attracted the largest crowds, the non-scrapbook areas seemed to have much better traffic than last year's show in Atlanta.

One independent, whose store is 40,000 sq. ft., told CLN, "I gave my people their marching orders: We have too much scrapbooking and too much yarn. Let's get back to the [craft] basics." Another large independent expressed disappointment he didn't find more exciting, new non-scrapbook lines. "I was hoping one of my buyers would come to me and say, 'I found something new that's so great I HAVE to have 12 feet for it.'"

An example of the change: Plaid had a hugely successful show, thanks in large part to its new Artistrywear bead line and its Jeaneology line of blue jean embellishments.

Scrapbooks. Retailers are beginning to explore widening their inventory offerings – and not just cardmaking/paper crafts. Industry veteran bead manufacturer Dan Sadur of Jewelcraft said he had a great show, thanks in part to orders from new customers – scrapbook stores, and Prudy Vannier's workshop, "Paint Pizazz," that incorporated decorative painting into paper crafts was a sellout. ... While numerous industry pros told CLN they thought scrapbooking had peaked, a representative of Ipsos, the company that conducted the new CHA research study (see below), said the data gave no indication that the category had, in fact, peaked.

Others. Beads continues to be a hot trend in part because it works with so many activities – jewelrymaking, embellishing clothing, quilting, crochet, etc. ... There appeared to be a huge increase in kids crafts. Certainly Fibre-Craft is a leader, but there were numerous others, such as Activa's new Colored FastCast Colored Casting Compound.

Painting. The future of decorative painting and the Society of Decorative Painters' role in its revitalization were the topics of a meeting by a group that hopes to become a Decorative Painting Advisory Council.

Yarn. The category has a public relations problem. Many retailers had ordered inventory expecting the category's meteoric rise to continue. It didn't. Result? "The pipeline is full," said John Laurie, president of the Craft Yarn Council of America. So while some retailers told the press they were "disappointed" with sales, that's a far cry from the quiet little no-growth category of a few years ago.

Technology. It's certainly having an impact on scrapbooking as evidenced by the Digital Imaging pavilion. Apart from the obvious (printers, kiosks, etc.) there was a wide variety of personal, hand-held machines, but delivery has been slow, although that's changing fast.

International. The UK Pavilion seemed to be a success. CLN has heard unconfirmed reports that it will return next year, its size doubled ... Business is good in Europe and scrapbooking is finally taking off. CLN met the head of the Italian Scrapbook Assn. ... While exhibitors have a variety of ways to communicate with U.S. retailers, the CHA show remains the premier method of communicating with the foreign buyers. The international sales director for a major paint line told CLN he had appointments with 17 major international buyers.

Acquisitions. There were numerous investment companies walking the show, apparently inspired by the acquisitions/investments in Provo, EK Success, and others.

Designers. Before the show, the board of the Society of Creative Designers voted to dissolve the organization, pending a vote by the membership. During the show a committee representing SCD, CHA, and CHA's designer section met to discuss unification efforts. All reports were positive. While there was sadness over SCD's demise, the general consensus was that the unification would be good for the industry ... The Designer Forum and the Inspiration and Design Faire were both successful ... The scrapbook designers' dinner attracted 300+ ... Quotation: "We should all go out and hug a designer, because they're the ones who drive the industry." – Jim Bremer, CHA's Chief Governance Officer and President of Tall Mouse

China. It might have been the most talked-about subject at the show. "China is the single most important element on your career," said Tom Rubel, CEO/President of Retail Forward, in his seminar, "20 Retail Trends for the Year 2010." ... One vendor told CLN that he is switching from a German supplier of a major component in the vendor's products to a supplier in China. "Even if my sales are flat this year," he said, "my bottom line will improve by $200,000."

Other Industries. There is a growing trend of "craft" vendors looking for and selling to other industries. A number of CHA vendors were pleased with their participation in the recent gift shows in Atlanta and Dallas. And one major craft vendor told CLN, "We're doing business in areas like drug stores that we NEVER thought we'd do."

Awards. Lynda Musante (Generations/Cardinal Brands) won the Meritorious Service award for her efforts to start the HIA/ACCI merger process ... Innovations (best new products) awards were won by Moore Push-Pin, Colonial Needle, 3 Ring Circles, and Heritage Handicrafts. Paper Cellar won an Innovations award in the New Exhibitor category and Judy's Stonehouse Designs won as best of show.

Elections. Tony LaSpada (Activa), Tom Ware (Bagworks), and Lynda Musante (Generations/Cardinal Brands) retired from the CHA board. Richard Brown (Sunrise Craft & Hobby), Bob Ferguson (Ferguson Merchandising), and Herb Lantinga (Notions Marketing) were re-elected, and Ron Staffieri (Rag Shop) was elected. All terms are for three years ... Speaker/consultant Geogianne Bender, retailer Karen Bremer, and manufacturer Lynda Musante were elected to the Nominating Committee. Heather Corvey and Barry Sokol were elected as alternates.

Volunteers. CHA is looking for volunteers to serve on a Bylaw Review task force. (Bylaws are the rules/structure under which the organization operates.) To volunteer, email board Chief Governance Officer Jim Bremer at jim@tallmouse.com.

Seminars. Many of the seminars and presentations were recorded, and audiocassettes and CD's will be for sale on the CHA website, www.craftandhobby.org.

Shows. The 2007 Winter Show will be Jan. 28-31 in Anaheim. The show will continue in Anaheim for at least five years, and probably longer. The CHA Summer Show is July 21-23 in Rosemont, IL.

Distributors. Herrs Pacific shut down its California warehouse and consolidated operations at its Danville, Illinois facility.

Legal. Former Wal-Mart Vice Chair Tom Coughlin pled guilty in federal court to five counts of wire fraud and one count of filing a false tax return for stealing money, gift cards, and merchandise from Wal-Mart. Coughlin, 57, faces a maximum of 28 years in prison and could be fined as much as $1.35 million. Coughlin made millions in salary and stock options, but pled guilty to using expense vouchers to buy products such as snakeskin boots, hunting trips, and Bloody Mary mix, the Associated Press reported. Estimated losses were as high as $500,000.

People. Duckwall-ALCO announced that effective Feb. 13, Rick Sturdivant will be Sr. VP, Stores. He had been Operating VP at Jo-Ann's and VP of Stores at Michaels.

Shows. The New York Gift show was a huge success, following the example of the Atlanta and Dallas gift shows, reported Gifts & Decorative Accessories.

Acquisition. Lara's Crafts was acquired by New Image Group, a holding company of River Capital. New Image Group also owns Consumer Products Enterprises (CPE) and Masterworks Decor. Ricky Heath (rheath@larascrafts.com) has been named President/CEO of Lara's Crafts; corporate headquarters will relocate to SC. Kievlan-McGuffee Design Services will continue consulting, design, and new product development for Lara's from their offices in Fort Worth. The new address: 541 Buffalo/West Springs Highway, Union, SC 29379. Call 800-232-LARA (5272).

NAMTA. Kudos to the new National Art Materials Trade Assn. foundation that distributed $90,000+ to NAMTA members who were hurricane victims.

Perspective. CLN heard that the new home furnishings show, held in Vegas at the same time as the CHA show, attracted 60,000 people – three times the CHA attendance.

Media. DesignerZine.com is "an online magazine and website committed to helping professional craft designers succeed in their design work and in their businesses." For more info, call Founding Editor R. Lynn Baker at 502-863-1967 or email r_lynn_baker@designerzine.com.

Despite walking the floor to exhaustion, CLN could only talk to a fraction of the 20,000 attendees. So now it's your turn. Vendors: how was business? Buyers: What did you like/dislike? Everyone: Your thoughts on the seminars, meetings, Vegas? Email your kudos and complaints to – on or off the record – to mike@clnonline.com.

Michaels no longer reports monthly sales figures, but for the fourth quarter, sales rose 7.2% to $1.270 billion and same-store sales rose 2.4%, thanks to a 2.2% increase in average ticket and a 0.2% increase in transactions. The strongest regions were the Southeast, Southwest, and Pacific, and the top categories were Jewelry/Beads, Candles/Bakeware, Kids Crafts, Art, and Frames.

Fiscal 2005 sales rose 8.3% to $3.676 billion and same-store sales increased 3.6%. Transactions were up 0.5%, the average ticket rose 2.7%, and custom frame deliveries were up 0.4%. A favorable Canadian currency translation added approximately 0.2% to the average ticket increase for the fourth quarter and approximately 0.4% for the fiscal year.

Michaels now expects earnings for the fiscal year to be $2-$2.05/share, reported TheStreet.com.

Jo-Ann's January net sales rose 1.0% to $137.2 million but same-store sales fell 3.2%. For the quarter, net sales increased 2.2% to $600.9 million, but same-store sales were down 3.0%. For the full fiscal year, net sales increased 3.8% to $1.880 billion but same-store sales decreased 0.8%.

Hancock net sales rose 2.9% to $31.7 million, and same-store sales rose 4.5% – the first time in recent months the chain posted an increase. In the fourth quarter, total sales declined 3.1% to $118.1 million, and same-store sales fell 4.0%. For the full year, total sales declined 5.5% to $403.1 million, while same-store sales fell 6.2%.

Others. January same-store sales: Costco, +9.0% ... Sam's Club, +8.2% ... Pier 1, +8.2% ... Walgreen, +7.4% ... Big Lots, +6.4% ... Nordstrom, +6.0% ... Bombay, +6.0% ... Factory Card & Party Outlet, +5.8% ... Duckwall-Alco, +5.8% ... CVS, +5.4% ... Target, +5.2% ... Wal-Mart (U.S.), +4.7% ... Saks, +4.0% ... Family Dollar Stores, +3.4% ... Dillard, +3.0% ... J. C. Penney, +2.5% ... Kohl's, +2.0% ... Federated, +1.0% ... Rite Aid, +0.9%.

A.C. Moore forecast earnings for 2005 below analysts' average expectations, but predicted 2006 sales growth of 16%-17%. The company now expects sales for the fourth quarter to be $188 million, up 6.1%, and total 2005 sales for 2005 to be $539.4 million, up 8.4%. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call were expecting sales of $189.3 million for the quarter and $540 million for 2005. Same-store sales fell 4% in the fourth quarter and slipped 2.6% for 2005.

"We have over the last six months underestimated the negative effect that yarn would have on our overall business, and for the first quarter it will be our biggest liability," President Larry Fine said on a conference call. He cited floral and seasonal products and jewelrymaking as strong categories and scrapbooking was "very steady."

But for 2006, A.C. Moore expects sales to grow 16%-17%, due to same-store sales growth in the low single digits, with flat same-store sales in the first quarter with higher levels in the rest of the year. Earnings/share are expected to be up 43%-54% to $0.71-$0.76

The company also plans 13-16 new store openings, of which four will open in the first quarter, and effective July 1, the company will operate and manage its own custom framing department; the current operation is leased.

F+W Publications announced the purchase of The Great American Scrapbook Conventions and Scrapbook Retailer magazine. F+W Chairman and CEO David Steward said, "The acquisition of these popular shows and influential magazine reflects our ongoing commitment to the scrapbooking category on both the trade and consumer levels."

Jeanne Wines-Reed, the founder of the Conventions and Scrapbook Retailer, will continue to oversee them, in addition to joining F+W as Group Publisher of the Memory Makers publishing franchise, including the magazine, books, a scrapbook club, and Internet properties; she will also oversee CNA magazine.

F+W publishes a wide variety of craft/hobby magazines and books, and was purchased by the investment firm ABRY Partners in June, 2005.

1. Will close approximately 50 stores in 2006, representing $32 million in annualized sales and approximately $3 million in operating losses. Hancock will engage a national firm to assist the process of marketing the closed properties that have leases beyond 2006 and negotiating with landlords for early terminations. The inventory in the closed stores will be liquidated in sales events, which will probably result in losses.

2. Will reduce its number of operating districts from 47 to 36 and its regions from five to three. The elimination of 13 district and/or regional management positions is expected to reduce expenses by approximately $1.1 million; severance costs will approximate $700,000.

3. Hancock will undertake a complete physical inventory of all stores, which the company estimates will take 6-10 weeks to complete and therefore could cause the company to delay filing its Form 10-K by the SEC's deadline.

CEO Jane Aggers said, "We ... expect that the decision to re-inventory our entire store base, while certainly ill-timed from a financial reporting perspective, will achieve a very positive result by putting Hancock on the road to a perpetual inventory system enabling more informed merchandising decisions."

To read the complete announcement, visit www.hancockfabrics.com; click on Investors; then click on Press Releases.

Treasure Island is closing its 16 stores in NJ/NJ, reported the North Jersey Media Group, and filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The 30+ year-old retail operation had 450 employees and estimated annual revenue of $49 million. The company reported assets of $9.5 million and debts of $9.6 million. Unsecured creditors will be paid from the liquidation sale.

Treasure Island was founded in the early 1970s by Bob Buchanan in a converted red barn; Christmas decorations and outdoor furniture were added later. Closure is set for the end of March. (Comment: Our very best wishes to Don Rigg, TI's head craft buyer. There isn't a nicer, more professional buyer in the industry – and we heard that over and over again from a wide variety of exhibitors at the CHA show.)

Lewiscraft, the 90-store Canadian chain, filed for bankruptcy and will close approximately 10 stores, according to the Canadian Press. The chain has 200+ full-time and about 400 part-time employees. "I believe that any restructuring will include store closures and employee terminations, and potentially, lease renegotiations," said President John Wilcox. "The objective of management at this time will be to keep Lewiscraft operating and to close only those locations which are clearly not viable."

Lewiscraft was founded in 1913 in Toronto to sell leather-crafting supplies and expanded into crafts in the 1970s. It was bought out of receivership by Lance Cove Investments in 1996. Wilcox told the Canadian Press the company has been seeking a buyer since last July, has lost money in six of the last eight years, and probably will again this fiscal year, which ends Apr. 30.

1. One of the underlying woes in the industry these days may be vendors and buyers losing their supplemental base. Every business has a hot trend or major customers, but often it's the smaller trends and customers that make the difference between profit and loss.

For example, Treasure Island may not have been a major customer for a vendor, but the Treasure Islands of the world help vendors weather the storm when a primary retailer drops the line, upps its demands, or changes buyers. Likewise, many categories, while not the hot new thing, remain strong enough so retailers can weather the storm when the hot trend starts to cool. Losing their supplemental base makes vendors and retailers more dependent on the major customers and the hottest trends. That's not healthy.

2. When a retail chain declares bankruptcy, we immediately assume the problem is poor management or unappealing products. Certainly that's often true, but sometimes it might be real estate: a) A retailer's long-term lease at a low rate might be more valuable than the store itself; b) the only way a retailer can rid himself of an expensive lease is to declare bankruptcy; or c) a landlord drives a store out of business (see "Benny Da Buyer").

FOR SALE. Small 18-year-old company specializes in handmade papers, organic and natural fibers, and other unusual products for the arts/crafts. Also sells home accessories. Has excellent long-term relationships with overseas vendors, buying direct – not through trading companies. Exceptional profit margins. Has national name recognition from tv/magazine exposure. Vertically integrated. Sells wholesale and retail, with an emphasis on retail for future growth. A large website generates much of the retail sales. For more info, call Mike Hartnett at 309-925-5593 or email mike@clnonline.com.

GIFT MARKETS. Reports from the Atlanta and Dallas gift shows are very positive. Lots of orders, enthusiasm, and buyer optimism for the new year. One traditional craft vendor told CLN, "We don’t have all the orders in from the sales rep’s showroom yet, but for business written at the show we have already beaten our sales goal by 60%."Another former craft vendor told CLN his Atlanta sales were up 150% over a year ago.

RECOMMENDED READING. The Wal-Mart Effect: How the World's Most Powerful Company Really Works – and How It's Transforming the American Economy, by Charles Fishman, Penguin Press. While conducting research, Fishman called CLN and asked for names of vendors who have supplied Wal-Mart. He was not looking for only positive or negative comments. CLN gave him some names and later heard that he did contact them, so there may be references/anecdotes from our industry.

MEDIA. The March issue of Women's Day, on sale Feb. 14, includes a giveaway which includes the Xyron Personal Cutting System, the Xyron Design Runner, Karen Foster Design Calendar papers, etc.

PAINTING. Plaid is celebrating the 10th anniversary of its FolkArt One Stroke Painting with Donna Dewberry with the publication of a book, Ten Wonderful Years, and a new Anniversary Brush Set – four silver marble handled brushes embellished with rhinestone jewels a signature black faux leather case.

FOR SALE. TheDeal.com, a trade publication for the mergers/acquisitions industry, wrote about Primedia putting its Crafts Division up for sale: "Industry sources say Primedia will settle for a price just above 10 times Ebitda. One source translated this to mean between 1 and 2 times sales [which would be $60-$120 million].

ACQUISITION. Bernina of America acquired Great Notions products. Bernina owns Oklahoma Embroidery Supply & Design, a supplier of embroidery designs and supplies to embroidery companies. Great Notions will be a subsidiary of Bernina operated by OESD.

SHOWS. Offinger Management is combining Bead & Art Glass Fest with the Memories Scrapbooking Expo Nov. 10-12 (with classes beginning Nov. 9) in Orlando. For details, visit www.beadandartglassfest.com and www.memoriesscrapbookingexpo.com ... MemoryTrends changed its dates for 2007, 2008, and 2009. The 2006 show remains Oct.10-12 in Las Vegas, but the future will be Sept. 18-20, 2007; Sept. 9-11, 2008; and Sept. 15-17, 2009.

CONDOLENCES. Jayne Hall Norman, 49, passed away following a three-year battle with lung cancer. She was a sales manager at Solon Mfg. for three years and previously was employed by Forster Mfg. for 15 years. Send memorials to the American Cancer Society.

PEOPLE. Xyron founder Chuck Ensign resigned as President of the Creative Division. Kent Thomsen has been promoted to President of Xyron and Sean Fernandez will add the title President, Creative Division to his current responsibilities for Esselte, the corporate parent of Xyron. Ensign will continue to assist Esselte in an advisory role as needed over the next six months ... Best wishes to Dave Bolen, formerly of Jo-Ann's and a member of the CHA board, in his new position as Exec VP/Chief Merchandising Officer for Petco. Dave has resigned from the CHA board ... Tom Wierzbicki was promoted to COO from VP/General Manager for Martingale. Prior to Martingale, he worked for Meredith for 12 years ... ... Julie Roehm, an 11-year veteran of the auto industry, will join its Wal-Mart Stores US division as Sr. VP of Marketing Communications.

TV. HGTV announced it will not be produce new episodes of Simply Quilts. Reruns will air on HGTV and DIY at least through 2006. To protest the cancellation, visit C&T Publishing's website, www.ctpub.com, and click on the link, "Help Save Simply Quilts." That will link you to the HGTV comments page.

MOVING. Wm. Wright Co. will begin phasing out its Warren, MA manufacturing and distribution operations starting Apr. 1 and moving to Nashville.

1. The New York Times recently reported on the growth of spinning: "Spin-Off, a magazine devoted to spinning, had a 46% increase in newsstand sales in the past four years, its publisher reported, and spinning wheel manufacturers have recorded a steady uptick in sales." The article quoted Marilyn Murphy, president of Interweave Press and publisher of Spin-Off, who said revenues from the magazine and related books have grown by about 75%.

2. All Michaels stores conducted an all-day yarn event Sun., Jan. 29 with hourly giveaways, free yarn activities for kids, and a fastest knit or crochet contest.

3. The Jan. 21 edition of NBC's weekend Today Show featured a report on knitting – by men – and showed men knitting at a "Boy's Night" at Knit NY, yarn shop. The ad for it said, in part, that it was for a man who is "man enough to knit and man enough to purl."

4. In early January Lion Brand Yarn received an email from a blind customer who complained that she could not access the knit/crochet patterns on the site. After doing research the site, www.lionbrand.com, now has hundreds of patterns that are computable with "text to speech" Web browsers and devices that produce Braille from web pages.

To read the latest job openings by he only personnel recruitment firm specializing in our industry, click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

A. C. Moore (ACMR). Last*: 14.87 ... Change**: +1.88
Hancock Fabrics (HKF). Last*: 4.53 ... Change**: +0.83
Jo-Ann Stores (JAS). Last*: 13.39 ... Change**: +0.95
Michaels (MIK). Last*: 32.95 ... Change**: -0.71
Wal-Mart (WMT). Last*: 45.49 ... Change**: +0.09
CLN Retail Index. Last*: 111.23 ... Change**: +2.8%
Dow Jones Index. Last*: 10,793.62 ... Change**: -1.5%

*Feb. 3 ** from Jan. 13 Prices are exclusive of dividends

Another thought-provoking CHA seminar was "Twenty Trends for 2010: Retailing in an Age of Uncertainty," by Tom Rubel, CEO/President of Retail Forward, a retail research and consulting firm. Some snippets:

"All strategies eventually fail."

"Asia has become the world's manufacturing base."

"Wal-Mart sales will reach $500 billion by 2010."

"Consumers want more for less (time, money, risk). .... If you want loyalty, buy a dog."

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xxx

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