Date: January 2, 2005
Vol. X, No. 1

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: Challenges for 2006  

This issue contains a special report on meeting challenges so the new year will be better than 2005. I wrote it with some hesitancy; after all, if I knew the answers to the industry's problems I'd be a multi-millionaire and would be laying on a beach in Tahiti rather than writing this newsletter. So I sent a rough draft to a number of industry veterans who have seen and heard it all – and asked their opinions.

I was bombarded with responses – so many interesting comments that this issue can't hold them all. There will be much more in the 1/16/06 issue. But I don't feel the discussion has ended. After all, if the industry's challenges were simple, we all would have solved them by now. If you'd like to comment on anything here, let me know – and don't hesitate to disagree. Email your thoughts, approvals, and disagreements to mike@clnonline.com.

Business-Wise. Comments from industry pros in reaction to the "Challenges for 2006" article below. Their comments on product categories – scrapbooking, beads, yarn, needlework, decorative painting, and home dec range from smart to cynical and angry to hopeful.

"Benny Da Buyer". Bob Ferguson, one of the industry's best retailers, responds to the "Challenges for 2006 article" – easily one of the most thought-provoking, interesting columns CLN has ever published.

Category Reports. Is "the recent knitting craze dying down," as Crain's Chicago Business reported? The research data suggests otherwise.

New Trade Show Exhibitors. The names, brief descriptions, and links to the websites of the new TNNA and CHA exhibitors.

Memory, Paper & Stamps. The schedule for digital imaging seminars at the CHA show.

Designing Perspectives. The CHA show schedule of events specifically for designers.

Note: If a column appears to be an old column, click the "Refresh" or "Reload" button on your browser.

2005 is over and it was ... what it was. Now the question for vendors and retailers alike is, "Why?" Increasing/lagging customer interest? Your costs and/or margins were up/down? New products were successful or flopped? To vote, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE.

The final tally in CLN's poll is worse than the preliminary results reported in the previous issue; 7.7% said sales were up substantially compared to this time last year, but 38.5% said sales were down substantially; 30.1% reported slight increases and 7.7% reported slight decreases; only 15.4% said sales were about the same.

What vendors have heard from their retailer customers mirrors the retailers' report; 5.9% heard retail sales were up substantially, but 29.4% were told retail sales were down substantially. A slight increase was reported by 11.8% and a slight decrease by 41.2%. Only 11.8% said their retailers' sales were about the same.

Although December sales figures won't be released until later this week, it appears that the holiday season was ok; there are estimates of sales being 3-6% higher than last year. The final increase probably won't match last year's, a disappointment considering there were more Thanksgiving-to-Christmas shopping days this year, and the convergence of Christmas, Hanukkah, and Kwanza.

One possible cause is the increase in E-commerce sales. Online holiday shoppers spent a total of $30.1 billion during the holiday season, up 30% from 2004, according to the eSpending Report from Goldman Sachs, Nielsen//NetRatings, and Harris Interactive.

Still, the jury is still out. Sales of gift cards are 15-20% higher than last year, Piper Jaffray analyst Jeff Kleinfelter told CNNMoney.com. Gift card revenue is not counted until the cards are redeemed; that could be after Christmas or next year.

Regardless of sales increases, profits may be another story. The stores that appeared to have matched or exceeded sales expectations were those who slashed prices the most.

A year ago, did you plan to send your kids to Harvard with the profits from your CLN Retail Index stocks? Better start thinking about the local community college instead.

2005. Michaels, +17.4% ... Wal-Mart, -11.2% ... A.C. Moore, -49.3% ... Jo-Ann's, -57.1% ... Hancock, -60.6%. The CLN Retail Index dropped 24.6%, the worst performance in the 9+ year history of CLN. The Dow lost 0.6%. Others: ShopKo, +55.4% ... Duckwall-ALCO, +25.9% ... Target, +6.0% ... Meredith, -3.5% ... Martha Stewart, -40.0% ... Primedia, -56.9%.

Fourth Quarter. Wal-Mart, +7.2% ... Michaels, +7.0% ... A.C. Moore, -24.1% ... Jo-Ann's, -31.7% ... Hancock, -38.7%. The CLN Retail Index dropped 6.0% and the Dow rose 1.4%. Others: ShopKo, +13.6% ... Target, +6.2% ... Meredith, +4.7% ... Duckwall-ALCO, -2.8% ... Martha Stewart, -30.2% ... Primedia, -60.1%.

During the fourth quarter very few execs from the companies in the CLN Retail Index cashed in stock options – no one from A.C. Moore or Michaels. Jo-Ann's Exec VP Dave Bolen, who announced his resignation during the quarter, cashed in 104,000 shares for $1.3 million; Chair Alan Rosskamm, who is giving up his position as CEO/President of Jo-Ann's, cashed in 54,900 shares for $658,790. Board member Ira Gumberg cashed in 2,875 shares for $34,327.

Hancock director Don Fruge sold 12,200 shares for $50,996.

A variety of Wal-Mart execs cashed in options, including Chair David Glass (365,970 shares for $19.4 million); Vice Chair Michael Duke (9,613 shares for $463,346); former Vice Chair/Director Wright Eduardo Castro (402 shares for $19,183); Douglas McMillon (398 shares for $19,343); and Controller Charles Holley (10,709 shares for $521,026).

CLN has learned that Wal-Mart is testing the concept of condensing the craft/fabric department and moving it from the back of the store to the middle. If the test is deemed successful, the change will be manifested in new stores and store re-sets.

"I’m not sure about the total footage," one source told CLN, "but I know they cut scrapbooking in half. I think from 48’ to 24’." Wal-Mart officials, many of whom were away for the holidays, could not confirm the test involved a much smaller scrapbook department.

(A note of caution, however: Wal-Mart is constantly running tests of all types in selected stores throughout the country. Rumors of the company increasing or decreasing the size of the department have floated periodically throughout the industry for years.)

"The new set is still being assessed," a Wal-Mart spokesperson told CLN. "It's an ongoing process with nothing set in stone. We're constantly reorganizing to make our stores more relevant for our customers."

The fact that the company is testing moving the department away from the back of the store may indicate that the overall department may not be performing as well in "destination studies" as it once did.

Destination studies include asking consumers which department they plan to visit first or what is the primary reason for visiting the store. Last year a Wal-Mart official said, "The craft consumer is one of the most loyal consumers who come into the store. Therefore, we put crafts in the back like milk in a supermarket."

In other words, Wal-Mart may sell more soda than crafts, but if the stores did not have a craft department, they probably wouldn't sell as much soda.

The new, revamped department has been tested, apparently with good results. This fall CLN visited a new Wal-Mart superstore in Rogers, AR, a few miles from Wal-Mart headquarters, and later learned that there was a similar store in Naperville, IL. CLN also learned that the Naperville store's department was as much as 120' smaller, but sales had not suffered proportionally. The space reportedly was given to the consumer electronics department.

"I do believe that if Wal-Mart or one of the other Big Boxes would ever go away," a vendor told CLN, "it would be a difficult 12 to 18 months for a lot of suppliers but, in the end, those Wal-Mart consumers would have to shop somewhere and they would have to go to Michaels, Jo-Ann's, et al, and our independents."

Another vendor disagreed. "If one big chain went away, sure, lots of sales would shift to independents and other chains, but not all of the sales. Some would be lost forever."

Years ago when Sam Walton was running a Ben Franklin store and only dreaming of starting an all-discount store, he said he loved the sewing department because it attracted the kind of customers he wanted. There wasn't a craft department then because, well, there really wasn't a craft industry.

As Sam developed his dream and the handful of craft pioneers coalesced into a small industry, Sam added crafts to the sewing department, in part because his wife, Helen, loved crafts. Lo and behold, crafts attracted Sam's kind of customer, too.

Eventually Wal-Mart opened three all-craft stores, Helen's Creative Crafts, and later sold them to Michaels. When asked why, retired VP Don Soderquist told CLN the company opened the stores to learn more about how to display and sell crafts. Once officials felt they'd learned all there was to learn, and realized the company's return on investment was higher opening Wal-Marts and Supercenters than craft stores, they sold the stores. The Helen's stores were profitable, Soderquist said, but other types of stores were more profitable.

Since Sam's death, rumors of Wal-Mart dropping the fabric/sewing department were like the tide: periodically spreading through the industry causing joy or terror, then receding. Once when the rumor was strong, CLN asked a former Wal-Mart craft buyer if she thought it was true. "No," she answered, "crafts does too well in destination studies, where the company asks customers when they walk in the door why they were there."

And over the years Wal-Mart would expand, contract, and change the department as trends evolved, selling millions of dollars of macrame, cross stitch, wearable art, memory, and other products. Wal-Mart officials have never revealed the sales data for the department, but various estimates have been well over $2 billion, making Wal-Mart at least the second largest retailer in our industry.

There will be one more issue of CLN before before the CHA winter show. If you're unveiling new product lines – AND you have them on your website – CLN will report it so buyers can check your site as they compile their "booths to visit" list. CLN will publish your company name, brief description, booth number, and link to the page containing the new product lines. Email the info to mike@clnonline.com. Please, ONLY if your website contains the new product info.

Last year was not a good one for most industry businesses. How do we make 2006 an improvement? Ten issues, in alphabetical order, to consider:

1. Beads. It's a huge category, but much of it is taking place outside our traditional stores, trade magazines, and trade shows. How do we capitalize on this trend and bring more of it into our businesses?

2. Chains Stores. Whoever is hired as CEO of A.C. Moore and Jo-Ann's will have a major impact on the industry. If they are incompetent or ineffective .... Or, can they do for their companies what Michael Rouleau has done for Michaels?

3. Decorative Painting/Cross Stitch. The categories need new designs that attract a younger audience, and projects that allow younger consumers to somehow "do their own thing" rather than merely duplicate the original. Projects of cute snowmen or bowls of fruit may appeal to existing painters and stitchers, but those customers are getting older. Meanwhile, retailers need to lighten up on pricing so the vendors have some margin to promote the category the way they did when the categories were flourishing.

4. Home Dec. Convince the consumer that our stores have AT LEAST as many inexpensive, creative home dec ideas as Home Depot or Lowe's. We are not capitalizing on the plethora of DIY home dec television shows.

5. Merchandising. Make our stores more interesting. Too many stores are boring and do not help light a creative fire in the customers.

6. Michaels. Is at an interesting point in its growth: a) The U.S. is pretty well filled with Michaels' stores; b) the company apparently hasn't figured out the right formula for its ReCollections stores or it would have opened more than 11 by now; c) the Star Wholesale concept sounds like a good one, but the country can't support that many of them; d) Aaron Brothers continues a very slow growth trend; e) Michaels has lots of cash. So, where does it go for growth? Simply concentrate on improving sales per store?

7. Retailers. Need to reduce pricing pressure and special allowances on vendors so they have money for new product development, promotions, and most importantly, inspiration and education so consumers get even more out of crafting; And stop the price cutting that reduces everything to a commodity item of little perceived value. Also, be more receptive to new products and re-set departments more often. We are making it too hard to be a vendor in this industry; consequently, we're driving some of our most creative vendors into other industries.

8. Scrapbooking. Simplicity – the magazines seem to be trending that way, and that's far more likely to attract newcomers ... Stop the constant emphasis on new products every three months ...Independents need to control their inventory and open-to-buy, and concentrate more on attracting newcomers than on buying everything the TwoPeas ladies want them to buy.

There is mounting evidence that some consumers are now creating scrapbooks entirely on their computers – and no longer need to buy supplies from our stores. Clearly, a major challenge is to provide products and services that digital scrapbookers will want to buy – in our stores. Every retailer attending the CHA show should attend the digital imaging seminars to at least get a better understanding of the phenomenon. Click on Memory, Paper & Stamps in the left-hand column for the complete schedule.

9. Young Consumers. We need to understand them: they are more urban, hip ... Interested in doing their own thing, rather than simply following directions and copying a project ... Want to personalize everything to the point of having a tattoo ... Far more comfortable with computers than theirr mothers ... They are post-feminists – not hesitant to take up "feminine" hobbies, but want to do them their own way. And in this post-feminist world, it's not just women who are potential customers.

10. Yarn. Thousands of young people tried knitting a scarf last year – and liked it. Now the challenge is to entice them into larger projects. If, instead, these younger consumers adopt the "Been there, done that" attitude, yarn sales will decline.

1. We're seeing more independents retiring and, rather than selling their stores, just closing their doors.

2. Retailers are pressuring vendors to produce quick, in-and-out, low-margin, one-shot items rather than new lines and/or line extensions.

3. Some retailers are closing down poor-selling categories to the point where they're becoming specialty shops. For better or worse, the industry seems to be slowly abandoning the concept of a "craft" umbrella that encompasses a wide variety of categories.

4. The Hispanic population, now the second largest racial group in the U.S. continues to grow. What is our industry doing to attract Latinos?

5. Chinese exports are expected to grow another 9% in 2006 according to the Hong Kong Trade Development Council.

(Note: Read industry reactions to the articles above at Business-Wise and "Benny Da Buyer." To add your thoughts to the discussion, email them to mike@clnonline.com.)

CHA officials report the advance registration is tracking ahead of the Atlanta show, and with 1,100+ booths, it will be the largest show in the HIA/CHA history. Online pre-registration lasts until Jan. 20. Visit www.chashow.org.

1. The half-price tickets are going fast for the CHA Theater Night Spectacular, "Le Reve." It includes a cocktail reception at the Hilton and transportation to/from the Wynn Hotel. For tickets, visit www.chashow.org/show_events.html.

2. It's a tradition that scrapbook designers, manufacturers, and the press have a dinner during trade shows. For CHA it will be Tues., Jan. 31, at 7:30 pm at The Buffet in the Hilton Hotel. Admission/dinner is about $21. More than 100 have already RSVP'd. Sponsorship opportunities are available for the 200 goody bags, individual door prizes, and a financial sponsorship of $300 to help organizers put on the event. For more info, email chawinterbash@yahoo.com, or visit www.chawinterbash.blogspot.com.

Chroma (HIA). #4630. Interactive Professional Artists' Acrylic. Introducing a revolutionary breakthrough in acrylic technology, Interactive – the only professional artists' acrylic that permits extended blending and reworking. www.chromaonline.com/interactive.

iKnitiative (TNNA). #104. Knitting patterns for all skill levels. The collection features 12 new designs, a mix of fashion-forward and timeless designs, with a focus on fun accessories. www.iknitiative.com/patterns.htm.

Knitwhits (TNNA) #1848. Knitting patterns and kits, including new purses, scarves, bikinis, flower pin kits, cat toy kits, etc., in a variety of colors for all skill levels. www.knitwhits.com.

Magnetic Poetry (CHA) #1948. The Words & Crafts line includes Chipboard Words, a Breezy Letter Stamp Kit, and a Kids Word Stamp Kit. www.wordsandcrafts.com

Uchida (HIA). #1415. DecoColor Duo connectable markers, Heritage ink pad, St. Tropez III plus illuminating pen, Squishy Scissors, Ori Hoki storage boxes, Wafu Gami specialty papers, Opaque Stix markers, and blank, silk-framed greeting cards. And watch for make-it/take-its with Dee Gruenig, Sue Sherman, and Sara Mayes. www.uchida.com/new/new.htm

Reminder: This is one more pre-show issue of CLN, online Jan. 16. Any exhibitors who have their new products on their websites are welcome to send CLN the company name, booth number, brief description, and URL and it will be published in the 1/16 issue. Email the info to mike@clnonline.com.

1. When I wrote the previous issue's summary of 2005, I was shocked by the number of changes that had occurred in one year. Judging from the number of responses I received to the issue, you were shocked, too.

My initial conclusion is that change is happening faster and faster each year – but maybe not. My mother was born in North Dakota in 1905 and as a little girl met Native Americans who fought against General Custer at the Battle of Little Big Horn. Then she lived through World War I, the radio, the Depression, World War II, Korea, Viet Nam, computers, the Internet, and saw on television a man walk on the moon.

2. After watching the Christmas selling season, it seems to me the overall retail industry has dug themselves into a huge hole. Consumers are now so spoiled by discounts, massive discounts, I don't see how retailers can get themselves out of it. Everyone will have to jack up their prices so they can advertise "50% OFF!" – and then the concept of a "sale" will be meaningless. The only other option is maintain the price and cheapen the product. Following that strategy ultimately results in cheap junk nobody wants.

3. Yes, Wal-Mart is constantly testing new ideas that may or may not result in chain-wide changes. But here is one change that is a fact: Wal-Mart's reaction to the press. For more than a quarter of a century I have written about Wal-Mart and asked company officials for comments, verification, etc. Every time, some nice voice in the public relations department would say, "Gee Mike, I'd really like to help you, but I just can't comment at this time."

I assumed that would be the case this time, too, but the company clearly has changed its approach. Execs finally understand, after a wealth of bad pr in the national media, that it's in their self interest to tell their side of the story. They finally learned their lesson – a good lesson for every company to learn.

PEOPLE. DMC appointed Joseph McCabe President/CEO. He has been with DMC since 1999, serving as President/CEO of its U.S. Sportswear Division, and most recently as U.S. Country Manager over all creative leisure business. Prior to DMC, McCabe served as VP of Amity Leather Products and held various positions at Johnson & Johnson. "I am pleased to have this opportunity to expand DMC’s business in the U.S. through new product introductions, enhancements to the successful merchandising programs we currently have in place, and further development of the partnerships we have created with our retail customers," McCabe said.

QUOTATION. "We spend January 1 walking through our lives, room by room, drawing up a list of work to be done, cracks to be patched. Maybe this year, to balance the list, we ought to walk through the rooms of our lives, not looking for flaws, but for potential." – Syndicated columnist Ellen Goodman (Boston Globe)

YARN. Spinrite Income Fund reported that its sales for the fourth quarter ending Dec. 31, 2005, are expected to range between $24 million to $25.5 million (Canadian dollars). Spinrite Income Fund holds an 80% interest in Spinrite Limited Partnership which produces the Spinrite yarn. "Compounded by a late start to the holiday season, Spinrite's sales in the fourth quarter have been impacted more than expected by aggressive inventory positions taken by retailers earlier in the year and a decline in category growth," said CEO/President Dario Margve. "We expect these factors to negatively impact sales through the first half of 2006. Coincidentally, we have experienced a build up of factory inventory due to lower than expected customer orders and the company is committed to effectively managing the issue."

QUOTATION. "An early star of the holiday season for Wal-Mart is the electronics department, where the retailer upgraded its offerings to attract higher-income shoppers. The success of the strategy bodes well for further implementation of the retailer’s plans to drive more sales from upscale shoppers who currently shop the store, but only for cherry-picked specials and commodities like paper goods." – Smart Supplier Newsletter

NEW STORES. There's a new yarn shop in the heart of Manhattan: Knitty City, 208 W. 79th St. and will feature classes, a full line of knit and crochet yarns, and guest appearances by knitting celebrities such as Lily Chin. The website will be www.knittycity.com ... Karen's Crafts is a 16,000-sq.-ft. store (40,000+ SKUs) in the Rochester, NY area. Co-owner is Dave Godfrey, former manager of a Leewards store.

RECOMMENDED READING. "The best business book written for women is by Gail Evans, published in 2000 by Broadway Books: Play Like a Man – Win Like a Woman. Now available in paperback." – Shea Szachara, Options-Plus/Shea Designs

STOCK. Olstein & Associates, which owns 9.1% of Jo-Ann's common stock, filed notice with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it believes the stock is undervalued, Reuters reported. "Steps can and should be taken by the issuer to increase the market valuation of the common stock. Olstein intends to continue its dialogue with, and to take an active interest in, the issuer regarding, among other things, the issuer's strategic direction and corporate governance and management."

CANDLES. "But the $2 billion candle industry, which enjoyed its heyday in the 1990s, has been slowing in recent years. Annual sales growth, once 10-15%, has slowed to 2-3%, according to the National Candle Association." – Trenton (NJ) Times

KNIT/CROCHET. Vickie Howell, host of Knitty Gritty on the DIY network, will make an appearance at the Knit & Crochet Show in Oakland, CA Apr. 20-23. The education program and other activities are part of the national conference for The Knitting Guild Assn. (www.tkga.com) and the annual spring conference for the Crochet Guild of America, CGOA (www.crochet.org). For info, visit www.knitandcrochetshow.com; email knitandcrochetshow@offinger.com.

TV. A new series produced by KS, Inc. Productions, Bake Decorate Celebrate!, will be downloaded Feb. 19. Nancy Siler and Melanie Glasscock are the hosts, and it's sponsored by Kraftmaid, Kitchenaid, and Coldwater Creek. (Comment: CLN has never understood why there hasn't more overlap between the creativity in "crafts" and creativity in the kitchen.)

QUOTATION. "I bet a lot of the declining same-store sales figures at Jo-Ann's and A.C. Moore, and others is due to Target taking sales." – Industry consultant

BOOKS. Noted needlework designer Lois Winston has written a novel, Talk Gertie To Me which will be published in April, but Amazon is taking advance orders. Learn more at www.loiswinston.com. (Comment: If Lois writes like she designs, Gertie should be a best seller.)

DECORATIONS. Martha Stewart taught Katie Couric how to make Christmas decorations out of Styrofoam on Dec. 21 edition of The Today Show.

ACQUISITION. Berkshire Partners and Weston Presidio completed acquisition of Party City Corp. The company will be de-listed from NASDAQ. Party City operates 248 company-owned stores and 254 franchise locations .

TV. The 8th series of Scrapbook Memories, hosted by Julie McGuffee and Beth Madland, uplinks to PBS stations Jan. 15. Sponsors include Fiskars, Epson, Provo, Generations/Cardinal, Royal & Langnickel Brush, Paper Pizazz, Morex, Craft-T Products, Kandi Corp., Dreamweaver Stencils, Steward Superior, JustRite Stampers, Grafix, Memories in Uniform, Scrapinsanity.com, Scrap N Cube, and Coldwater Creek. Visit www.scrapbookmemoriestv.com.

REMINDER. Starting Jan. 8, the price of a first-class stamp rises from 37 to 39 cents.

To see the current listings from the only personnel recruitment firm specializing in our industry, click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

A. C. Moore (ACMR). Last*: 14.55 ... Change**: -0.08
Hancock Fabrics (HKF). Last*: 4.09 ... Change**: -0.07
Jo-Ann Stores (JAS). Last*: 11.80 ... Change**: -0.17
Michaels (MIK). Last*: 35.31 ... Change**: -1.56
Wal-Mart (WMT). Last*: 46.82 ... Change**: -2.45
CLN Retail Index. Last*: 162.46 ... Change**: -3.6%
Dow Jones Index. Last*: 10,717.50 ... Change**: -1.5%

Soon most of us will be flying to trade shows, and occasionally airline employees inject humor into their boring announcements. Here are some, reportedly true, emailed to CLN:

1. On landing, the stewardess said, "Please be sure to take all of your belongings. If you're going to leave anything, please make sure it's something we'd like to have."

2. As the plane landed and was coming to a stop at Ronald Reagan, a lone voice came over the loudspeaker: "Whoa, big fella. WHOA!"

3. "To operate your seat belt, insert the metal tab into the buckle, and pull tight. It works just like every other seat belt; if you don't know how to operate one, you probably shouldn't be out in public unsupervised."

4. "In the event of a sudden loss of cabin pressure, masks will descend from the ceiling. Stop screaming, grab the mask, and pull it over your face. If you have a small child traveling with you, secure your mask before assisting with his. If you are traveling with more than one small child, pick your favorite."

5. "Your seat cushions can be used for flotation; and, in the event of an emergency water landing, please paddle to shore and take them with our compliments."

6. "As you exit the plane, gather all of your belongings. Anything left behind will be distributed evenly among the flight attendants. Please do not leave children or spouses."

7. Another flight attendant's comment on a less than perfect landing: "We ask you to please remain seated as Captain Kangaroo bounces us to the terminal."

8. After a very hard landing, the pilot was at the door saying good-bye to the passengers. The last one off was a little old lady. She asked, "Did we land, or were we shot down?"

9. After a real crusher of a landing, the attendant announced, "Ladies and Gentlemen, please remain in your seats until Capt. Crash and the Crew have brought the aircraft to a screeching halt against the gate. And, once the tire smoke has cleared and the warning bells are silenced, we'll open the door and you can pick your way through the wreckage to the terminal."

10. "Thank you for flying with us today. And, the next time you get the insane urge to go blasting through the skies in a pressurized metal tube, we hope you'll think of US Airways."

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4. Creative Leisure News is published the first and third Mondays of each month.  Your next issue will be Monday, January 16. HAPPY New Year!

xxx

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