Date: July 20, 2005
Vol. IX, No. 14

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: Changes in Scrapbooking  

Probably the most common thing I heard at last weekend's CHA Summer Show was, "Scrapbooking has peaked." Word is spreading that a number of independent stores are closing; that will drag down a number of small vendors, and there are too many vendors selling essentially the same thing (especially paper).

These comments may very well be true, but the ultimate question is, has the consumer's interest peaked? That's very difficult to determine because so many retail operations outside our "traditional" industry are selling scrapbook supplies. Scrapbooking does seem to have peaked within our industry, but as CLN reported earlier, Big Lots is selling a million dollars a month in scrapbook paper. How is Toys R Us doing with its Kodak memory program? How about Target? The consumer may be as interested as ever, but may be purchasing substantial amounts of supplies in stores we don't consider "ours."

Creating Keepsakes' latest research indicated 25% of U.S. households have a scrapper. That leaves 75% – a lot of potential for the category to resume growing – if we focus on attracting the beginner, rather than bombarding retailers with new, advanced products every three months.

Memory, Paper & Stamps. A scrapbook retailer closes her doors and blames vendors? Does she have a point? Well, yes and no – Mike Hartnett comments.

Tech Topics. An industry website was hacked into and consumer credit card info was stolen from the e-commerce portion of the site. Here's how the company handled the problem.

"Vinny Da Vendor". What makes a great manufacturer's rep? Colleagues describe the late Bob Watkins.

Scene & Heard. More expert comments on beads: how beads compare to other industry categories, and design trends from the recent Bead&Button show.

Category Reports. The Home Sewing Assn. released perhaps the most comprehensive study of the sewing industry – ever. Here are some highlights.

Kate's Collage. A newspaper editor/columnist describes her introduction to scrapbooking – a beautifully written reminder of why scrapbooking is so popular.

Legal Q. & A. CLN's legal expert, Eva-Marie Boyd, passed away earlier this year. Here's a brief story of her wonderful life.

New Trade Show Exhibitors. Did you miss some of the vendors in the "New Exhibitor" section of the CHA Summer Show? Their listings with links to their sites are still here.

Note. If you surf to a column and it's an "old" column, click the "Refresh" or "Reload" button of your browser.

What is America's biggest challenge – the economy, Iraq, health care, or ...? To vote, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE.

President Bush cannot be happy with the results of CLN's latest poll – and Congress should feel worse. The President's handling of Iraq: Miserable: 43.9% ... Poor: 10.6% ... Fair: 6.0% ... Good: 25.8% ... Outstanding: 13.6%.

The President's handing of the economy: Miserable: 30.0% ... Poor: 24.2% ... Fair: 13.6% ... Good: 16.7% ... Outstanding: 15.2%.

Congress' handing of the economy: Miserable: 30.0% ... Poor: 40.9% ... Fair: 16.7% ... Good: 10.6% ... Outstanding: 1.5%.

(Comment: In CLN's final pre-election poll, President Bush handily defeated Senator Kerry.)

The show was filled with contradictions. There appeared to be a smaller attendance, but the traffic flow seemed good throughout the show because there were fewer vendors. While scrapbook exhibitors seemed very happy with the show, it was a mixed bag for non-memory vendors. They were the distinct minority, but as a result, the non-memory buyers had far more time for them than happens at the CHA Winter Show. 

Heard on the show floor:

"Scrapbooking has peaked."

"The traffic seems down but those who are here are buying." -- Scrapbook vendor

"I came here expecting to talk to a couple of [non-memory] vendors in particular. I was very disappointed they weren't here." – Large independent retailer

"Vendors who don't exhibit at this show are very short-sighted" – CEO of a major chain

"As the scrapbook business gets tougher, more independents realize they need to join a group and work together." – President of a retail group

"The investment community seems to have discovered our industry" – President of a company who's receiving 1-2 inquiries a week about selling his company.

"I never saw so much paper in my life. Are there any trees left?" – Scrapbook retailer

"There's absolutely no need for three scrapbook shows – CHA Winter and Summer, and Memory Trends. Retailers and vendors can't afford to attend three." – Scrapbook manufacturer

"We absolutely need three scrapbook shows because the demand for new products is so constant." – Scrapbook manufacturer

Trends: Successful scrapbook retailers are expanding into picture framing and paper crafting, and using a wider variety of "craft" products in their projects ... There appears to be an up-tick in needlepoint, probably due to an overlap of a new generation discovering knitting ... There's recent growth in wearable art/fabric painting, too, as the personalization/embellishment trend continues to grow.

Seminars. Two very successful seminars were How To Sell To The Chains (100+ attendees at 7:30 am on set-up day) and Scrapbook Retailer's Surviving in the Scrapbook Industry, a five-hour event that mixed business topics and breaks to work with products.

If Michaels performs as its execs expect, it will be the clear winner for the second quarter. The company announced it expected diluted earnings/share for the second quarter ending July 30 to be $0.20-$0.22 as it had announced in May. Same-store sales for the quarter are expected to increase 5%-6%. The top departments: general crafts, yarn, scrapbooking, and ribbon/wedding. Top regions: Southwest, Pacific, and Southeast. For the fiscal year, diluted earnings/share are expected to increase 25%-30%. The sales/earning report will be released Aug. 4.

Advent International Group is making a major bid to buy or invest in EK Success, according to TheDeal.com, a trade publication for the mergers and acquisitions industry. In May, Advent bought a 70% stake in Making Memories.

As reported in the previous issue of CLN, EK Success hired Banc of America (BofA) to handle the sale. Advent and BofA declined to comment to TheDeal.com, and EK had already announced it would not comment until any deal was completed.

TheDeal.com quoted unnamed sources as saying EK's EBITA ((Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) was about $30 million and could attract bids of 8 times EBITA. Advent may be willing to pay up to 9 times, or $270 million, reported TheDeal.com.

While a rumor spread at the CHA Summer Show that the deal has been completed, CLN learned that no deal with any buyer has been completed.

(Note: The following report is from Cari Clement, Director of Fashion & Design for Caron Int.)

Pitti Filati, the international yarn show held recently in Florence, is "the" show for anyone involved in yarn – the fashion press, designers, knitwear manufacturers, and U.S. yarn importers. Many craft industry yarn spinners and importers were there, including myself.

While the trends area is always changing, it reflected an upcoming knitwear direction of "knitwear as art" and, more specifically, a pallette for individual expression, whether in color, stitch patterns, or overall design. Other trends for the 2006-07 season:

Tweeds and plaids in non-traditional shapes ... Northern looks such as Aran and Fair Isle patterning ... Soft, romantic looks translated into ruffles, lace, and other similar embellishments ... Continuing global influences reflected in rich colors and tapestry-inspired looks ... Chunky and "big" looks with large shawl collars and cowl necklines. One of the most significant trends is that of increasing embellishing, from trimmings to beading to sequins to embroidery.

The show was very busy and the Italian mills are beefing up their offerings in their hand knitting divisions, indicating that knitting is finally catching on in Europe, following America's passion for the art. The mills describe Europe as being where America was a couple years ago. But the look for the US seems to be getting more toned-down (after all, where else could it go?) and focusing more on stitches and color than heavily textured yarns.

(Note: Cari is also the driving force behind the Fiber and Craft Entrepreneurial Development Center which is starting knitting cooperatives for the women of Rwanda. To read more, click on Business-Wise in the left-hand column.)

The (Portland) Oregonian recently published an article about the resurgence of, yes, paint-by-numbers. The article highlighted Art by Numbers (www.artbynumbers.co.uk) from Great Britain. The company offers kits for contemporary floral designs ranging in price $50 to $123.

Meanwhile, the Bob Ross Co. is unveiling Bob Ross for Kids paint-by-number kits next month. Visit www.bobross.com.

The Oregonian said collecting vintage paint-by-number paintings from the 1950s is popular, too. Fifty years ago, paint-by-number kits sold for about $2.50. Last summer, a portrait of Queen Elizabeth sold for $2,800 on eBay.

The pastime started in the 1920s when kits were sold to children. Kits for adults started in the 1950s and took off when a finished kit winning third place in a San Francisco art contest attracted national publicity. The Oregonian quoted William Bird Jr.'s book, Paint by Number: The How-To Craze that Swept the Nation, as saying by 1954, "the hobby's critics ruefully noted that more number paintings hung in Americans' homes than did original works of art."

The previous issue included an email from an industry veteran who was shocked by the amount of "dumping" (selling excess inventory at drastically reduced prices) at consumer shows. That elicited the following responses:

1. "We didn't call it 'dumping' back then, but that practice ruined the ceramics industry, the tole painting industry, and it's going to ruin scrapbooking, too. They just don't learn. If I was an independent scrapbook store I wouldn't tell my customers about these shows." (Comment: The same thing happened in counted cross-stitch, too, and show sponsors have no control over the prices exhibitors charge attendees.)

2. "I also attended a show recently and I have never seen anything like this anywhere in the three years that we have been doing shows. This put a huge dent in the pocketbooks of the attendees as well as their perceptions of the value of other products at the show.

"I felt so bad for those retailers who had devoted booth space to selling product from those companies doing the dumping. But I doubt that will influence their buying habits much. Retailers are constantly whining about the unethical practices of large companies: from selling brand new products to chains or at consumer shows before independents can get them, to heavy chain discounting and selling on QVC and HSN. The independents continue to buy the large company's products and ignore those more loyal to independent smaller manufacturers.

(Comment: independents probably argue that the larger vendors advertise heavily; then the retailers' customers request the products, so the independents feel obligated to order them.)

A.C. Moore (and Michaels) does not announce monthly sales figures, but A.C. Moore's quarterly results were sluggish – see below. Meanwhile, Jo-Ann's net sales increased 4.0% to $151.8 million, but same-store sales decreased 0.2%. Year-to-date, sales are up 3.8% to $687.1 million and same-store sales have risen 0.4%.

Wal-Mart's same-store sales rose 4.5%, the largest increase since May, 2004. The company said a higher average ticket was responsible for 75% of the sales increase. Once again, Target's increase was higher: 9.0%.

Hancock's same-store sales fell 8.0%. CEO Jane Aggers announced that it has finalized its new $110 million secured credit facility with Wachovia Bank, N.A.

Others. Kohl's, +14.4% ... Costco, +9.0% ... Nordstrom, +8.1% ... Walgreens, +7.8% ... JCPenney, +7.4% ... CVS, +5.8% ... Dollar General, +4.3% ... Duckwall-ALCO, +3.3% ... Family Dollar, +1.4% ... Big Lots, +1.1% ... Rite Aid, +0.2%.

For the second quarter ended June 30, sales rose 12.1% to $113.5 million, but same-store sales rose only 0.5%, below the company's expectations. For the first six months of the fiscal year, sales were $236.4 million, up 11.1%, but same-store sales have fallen 0.6%.

As a result, execs now expect earnings to be a penny profit or loss/share for the quarter, and lowered its full year profit forecast by six cents to $1.00 - $1.03/share. The stock dropped $3.16 the day of the announcement.

CEO Jack Parker stated, "During the second quarter, we spent a great deal of energy re-merchandising our stores and preparing for the important last six months of the year. This year we re-worked over 75% of our basic merchandise footage. We believe the changes we made will not only serve us well in the third and fourth quarters of this year, but also provide benefits for future years. With that said, we were disappointed with our sales in the second quarter, especially our weekend business starting with Memorial Day and continuing through June."

Earnings will be reported today, July 20.

Most publications offer suggestions for summer reading for the beach or vacation. But if you're one of those people who can't completely leave work at the office or store, here are some suggestions:

1. The Paradox of Choice, by Barry Schwartz, a professor of psychology at Swarthmore College. His research indicates that often consumers are simply bewildered by a wide variety of similar products and often end up buying less than they would have if they'd been presented with fewer choices. (Comment: Certainly food for thought for our industry, particularly in scrapbooking.) To read an interview with Schwartz, visit www.kpmginsiders.com/display_analysis.asp?cs_id=135245.

2. The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century, by New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, who explains why trade issues aren't as simple as they seem.

3. To learn about the growing Hispanic market, read Beyond Bodegas: Developing a Retail Relationship with Hispanic Customers, by Jim Perkins.

Bill Gardner, the Editorial Director of Craftrends, is participating in an AIDS walk in Denver Aug. 20. He raised $3,300 last year, and to help Bill reach this year's goal of $3,500, send a check to AIDS Walk Colorado, c/o Craftrends, 741 Corporate Circle, Ste. A, Golden, CO 80401 – or visit www.aidswalkcolorado.org, click on Donate, then Sponsoring a Participant, then follow the instructions to reach Bill's donation page.

You may remember Bill was the driving force behind the auction, Creating for Life. It was a highlight of the ACCI Chicago show for nine years that raised approximately $250,000 for AIDS research. Bill was honored by HIA (now CHA) for his efforts.

CONSUMERS. The U.S. is number one when it comes to the percentage of the population that claims to "have no spare cash," according to a new A.C. Nielsen survey of consumers in 38 countries. More than one-quarter (28%) of U.S. respondents said that once they have covered their essential living expenses, they have no money left over. For those who do not live paycheck to paycheck, 37% of U.S. respondents use the extra money to pay off debts; 21% use the money for home improvements/decorating – a higher percentage than those buying new clothes or planning holidays/vacations.

IMPORTS. According to Ad Age, most Americans believe "Made in the USA" stands for quality and value, but young adults and higher income households are not inclined to look for U.S.-made products.

MINIMUM WAGE. Wisconsin is the 18th state to raise its minimum wage above the federal minimum wage of $5.15. The federal minimum hasn't increased in eight years, and its buying power is at its lowest point since 1949, USA Today reported. The paper cited a Pew Research Center poll in December which indicated 86% of those surveyed supported raising the federal minimum to $6.45. The latest proposal to raise it died in the Senate in March.

LACE. The Associated Press recently profiled Manhattan Lace, in Franklin Lakes, NJ. The 38-year-old company once had 10 lace-making machines and employed about 45 people. Now, it runs three machines which are 100+ years old, and has four employees. In 1996 Manhattan Lace was one of 400 embroidery companies within a 10-square-mile radius. Today there are fewer than 50. What happened? "... the world economy comes knocking, and it goes out of business because it can't stay competitive," said Silvio Laccetti, author of an economic study of the area. "The cost of manufacturing everywhere is lower than here." The company also sells to quilters and home knitters through eBay.

LEGAL. OfficeMax is the latest chain being investigated by the Securities and Exchange Commission regarding payments to the company from vendors. The chain began its own investigation when an OfficeMax vendor claimed "certain employees acted inappropriately in requesting promotional payments and falsifying supporting documents," the Associated Press reported. (Comment: It's the first time CLN has heard of a vendor turning in a chain to the feds.)

ADVERTISING. According to the U.S. government American Time Use Survey, adults in homes with children have 4.2 hours of leisure time per day, and working mothers have a little more than three hours. Meanwhile an article on BrandWeek.com cited studies by Yahoo! and Starcom Media where women indicate their total time spent on individual activities in one day added up to 38 hours of activity. BrandWeek.com calls it "Multiminding" and claims traditional advertising methods are becoming less effective because women don't or can't pay attention; they're already doing two or more things at once ... eMarketer raised its projection for 2005 Internet ad spending to 34% from 21%, Ad Age reported.

ADVERTISING. A new Forrester Research report revealed that retailers doubled their spending on search engine advertising in 2004, but reduced slightly their advertising with portals such as Yahoo!, America Online, and MSN, Media Post reported .... A survey by the Interactive Advertising Bureau concluded companies increased their online ad spending by 26% in the first quarter of 2005 ... Merrill Lynch reported, "We continue to estimate a 29% increase in U.S. online spending this year to $12.4 billion," Forbes reported. Merrill Lynch expects a 21% compound annual growth rate through 2009, when spending will reach $25 billion.

GASOLINE. Oil temporarily hit $62/barrel for the first time since 1983. "It's affected retailers differently, with an impact on lower-income households," Mike Niemira of the Int. Council of Shopping Centers told the New York Daily News. The ICSC sales at luxury stores rose 7.1% over the past year; discounters' improved only 2.7%.

TRAVEL. Due to increased business travel, hotel rates are going up, says the New York Times. Rates will rise 4.3% next year.

PRICING. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince sold 6.9 million copies the first day, and yet a price war broke out among retailers. Wal-Mart.com is selling the book for $1.33 less than Amazon, then Amazon cut the price $1. Retail stores are cutting prices, too. (Comment: Isn't that called leaving money on the table?)

PEOPLE. Duncan promoted Mark Peters to Exec VP. Mark has served in various VP positions at Duncan over the past nine years ... CHA hired Tony Lee as VP of Meetings & Expositions. Tony has 25+ years of show management experience and is the former Chair of the New York chapter of the Int. Assn. of Exposition Management ... Polyform promoted Robbin Bedard to VP of Marketing from Director of Product Development, and named Teri Bailey as Marketing Manager ... The CHA Board of Directors has given a multi-year extension to the contract of the CEO, Steve Berger ... Joe Brown joined Li’l Davis Designs as Exec VP. Joe had been Dir. of Operations/VP - Strategic Sourcing for Making Memories.

CNA. The magazine named Laura Rintala as Associate Editor. The CNA office is also moving to Denver – manufacturers should send all product info to Laura at 12365 Huron St., Ste. 500, Denver, CO 80234. Her email is laura.rintala@fwpubs.com and her phone is 303-920-5369. Editor Karen Ancona's phone remains the same, 570-646-8524.

TRADEMARKS. For an excellent article on the basics of trademarks and trademark infringement, visit http://wistechnology.com/article.php?id=1971.

AWARDS. Polyform's latest addition to its Sculpey line, Party Projects Oven-Bake Clay Party Kit, has won an Excellent Product award from iParenting Media, and awards from The National Parenting Center and the Parents' Choice Foundation. Visit www.sculpey.com.

YARN/FLIP-FLOPS. A recent article distributed to the Knight Ridder/Tribune newspapers profiled Joan Cassel of Colebrookdale Township, PA who decorates flip-flops "with the fuzzy eyelash yarn popular in scarves." The response has been so strong she's made hundreds of pairs this summer and is selling them. The article reported decorated flip-flops are hot sellers in stores, and that has inspired crafters to create their own. The article said the local A.C. Moore and Michaels stores sold out quickly this summer.

NEEDLEWORK. Candamar Designs has recently expanded into distributing Yazzi Organizers, Angel Knit Patterns for the Cure, and The Butterfly Looms, which allow consumers to make ponchos, jackets, scarves, handbags, and home dec items with yarn, ribbon, fabric strips, etc. Visit www.candamar.com.

DRAWING. Derwent launched a new drawing pencil, Graphitint, which combines the qualities of a conventional graphite pencil with a hint of color. Used dry, Graphitint produces a suggestion of color, but by adding water, the colors become more vibrant. It's available in 24 shades and is being distributed in the U.S. and Canada by ColArt.

PAPER. Card designer and manufacturer Meri Meri won a record 13 Louie awards at the 17th annual International Greeting Cards awards ceremony in New York in May. She's now offering adhesive backed die-cuts. Visit www.scrapbookingwithus.com/merimeri.html.

YARN. Lion Brand's website is offering a free knitting pattern based on the colors of the four different "houses" of Harry Potter's school. The pattern was developed by a clerk in the Gilroy, CA Barnes and Noble store. She knitted "Wizard Scarves" for each of the 60 store employees to wear for the celebration of the new Harry Potter book, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, that premiered last week.

PHOTOS. By late September, Walgreen's customers will be able to upload their photos to www.walgreens.com, choose a Walgreen's location, and pick up the photos within an hour.

BEADS. CLN is hearing good things about The Bead Monkey – stores in the Minneapolis area and an impressive Internet site. Visit www.thebeadmonkey.com.

NEEDLEWORK. Plaid will relocate Bucilla manufacturing and distribution functions from Hazleton to Plaid's Atlanta-based facilities. The consolidation will be complete by November. "Over the past several years, Plaid has invested heavily in our Atlanta manufacturing and distribution facilities," said Plaid President Mike McCooey. "Our new manufacturing facility and enhanced distribution systems will allow the company to leverage that investment and provide continued growth for the Bucilla brand. "With our expanded facilities, we now have the capacity to bring Bucilla to Atlanta." Bucilla was founded in 1867 and was acquired by Plaid in 1996. The company specializes in counted and stamped cross stitch kits and felt kits.

MENTORS. The Needle Arts Mentoring Programs (NAMP) pair adult needleworkers with kids wishing to learn various forms of needlework. It's sponsored by the Helping Hands Foundation, a division of The National NeedleArts Assn. Order forms will be mailed this fall to 53 sites that were active during the 2004-2005 program year and new programs are being added for classroom teachers, after-school program coordinators, Scout troop leaders, and other adults. TNNA members have been generous with in-kind donations of supplies to the foundation. Anyone interested in making a contribution or starting a NAMP should contact Exec Director Penny Sitler at psitler@offinger.com, call 740-452-4541, ext. 3250, or visit www.needleartsmentoring.org.

LAWSUITS. Two current and one former employee of Wal-Mart filed a lawsuit in Oklahoma City claiming the retailer retaliated against employees who file workers' compensation claims. They are seeking class-action status for their suit. A Wal-Mart spokesperson told the Associated Press the company had not been served with the lawsuit and therefore could not comment on the specifics of the case but added, "Safety is paramount in every decision we make both for customers and our associates." ... Ten shoppers filed a lawsuit against Wal-Mart, alleging that employees in a Boston-area store targeted them as potential shoplifters based on their race, the Associated Press reported. In December, the shoppers offered to settle the case for $400,000, but the company did not make a settlement offer. A spokesperson said the company has not thoroughly reviewed the lawsuit, but had investigated the cases and found no evidence of discrimination.

QUOTATION. "At some point vendors are going to start putting the onus back on the retailers and say, 'Our job is to make stuff; your job is to sell stuff.'" – Jim Dion, president of Dionco Inc., a retail consulting firm (St. Louis Post Dispatch)

STOCK. Stephens Inc. downgraded A.C. Moore from overweight to equal weight.

TV. Our industry is popping up in strange places. A recent segment of Fire Me, Please featured a scrapbook store. Contestants try to get fired as quickly as possible and this contestant was every store manager's nightmare ... One of the characters of the HBO hit, Six Feet Under, meets with a knitting group in a store called "Unwind: Knitting for the Body and Mind."

RETAIL THEFT. According to a new survey sponsored by the National Retail Federation, 78% of senior loss-prevention retail execs said their company has been a victim of an organized retail theft in the past year and 46% have seen the problem increasing. "From small mom-and-pop stores to big-box retailers, the entire retail industry is feeling the impact of this growing problem," said Joseph LaRocca, NRF VP of Loss Prevention.

To see a partial listing of the jobs being offered by The Creative Network, the only personnel recruitment firm specializing in our industry, click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

A. C. Moore (ACMR). Last*: 27.24 ... Change**: -4.96
Hancock Fabrics (HKF). Last*: 6.71 ... Change**: -0.05
Jo-Ann Stores (JAS). Last*: 27.00 ... Change**: +0.49
Michaels (MIK). Last*: 39.70 ... Change**: -1.26
Wal-Mart (WMT). Last*: 49.99 ... Change**: +1.71
CLN Retail Index. Last*: 150.64 ... Change**: -2.6%
Dow Jones Index. Last*: 10,574.99 ... Change**: +2.6%

1. Most consumers have old photos stuffed in drawers, but many also have old jewelry from mothers and grandmothers that they no longer wear. What about a class teaching students how to take apart the old pieces and create new necklaces, bracelets, pendants, and earrings using the ancestor's beads? The new creations become a kind of wearable scrapbook.

2. Chicago magazine reported that a Chicago yarn shop, Nina, is hosting baby showers for up to 12 people. The guests are taught enough knitting skills to contribute a square or two. The squares are then joined to create the baby's first blanket.

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xxx

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